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「防止台灣遭侵略法案」(Taiwan Invasion Prevention Act)
「防止台灣遭侵略法案」(Taiwan Invasion Prevention Act)

U.S. lawmaker to introduce bill to deter China attack on Taiwan
Washington, July 19 (CNA) Republican House Representative Ted Yoho said over the weekend that he plans to put forth a bill that would authorize the president of the United States to respond with military force if China decides to attack Taiwan.

"We are introducing a bill next week that's going to be called the Taiwan Invasion Prevention Act," Yoho said in an interview on Fox Business Network last Friday.

The Republican congressman, who is a member of the U.S. House of Representative's subcommittee on Asian affairs, made the announcement in response to a question on whether the American government was doing enough to back Taiwan amid China's constant threats.

"This [Taiwan Invasion Prevention Act] is something that's going to lay very clear what our intent is," said Yoho, a vocal supporter of Taiwan. "In fact, it will go to the point where it authorizes an AUMF (Authorization for Use of Military Force) if China invades Taiwan, and it'll be a sunset for five years, that AUMF, that would authorize the president to use force."

He noted that under the U.S.' current Taiwan Relations Act that took effect in 1979, the U.S. is committed to sell Taiwan enough weapons to defend itself.

"But when Xi Jinping has announced that he's ready to draw blood over Taiwan and reunify them, they forgot to ask Taiwan," Yoho said. "Taiwan has never been part of the People's Republic of China, and nor do they want to."

Yoho was being interviewed on a program called "Red Storm," hosted by Lou, which focused on China's expansionist ambitions in the Asia-Pacific region.

U.S. lawmaker to introduce bill to deter China attack on Taiwan

Washington, July 19 (CNA) Republican House Representative Ted Yoho said over the weekend that he plans to put forth a bill that would authorize the president of the United States to respond with military force if China decides to attack Taiwan.

"We are introducing a bill next week that's going to be called the Taiwan Invasion Prevention Act," Yoho said in an interview on Fox Business Network last Friday.

The Republican congressman, who is a member of the U.S. House of Representative's subcommittee on Asian affairs, made the announcement in response to a question on whether the American government was doing enough to back Taiwan amid China's constant threats.

"This [Taiwan Invasion Prevention Act] is something that's going to lay very clear what our intent is," said Yoho, a vocal supporter of Taiwan. "In fact, it will go to the point where it authorizes an AUMF (Authorization for Use of Military Force) if China invades Taiwan, and it'll be a sunset for five years, that AUMF, that would authorize the president to use force."

He noted that under the U.S.' current Taiwan Relations Act that took effect in 1979, the U.S. is committed to sell Taiwan enough weapons to defend itself.

"But when Xi Jinping has announced that he's ready to draw blood over Taiwan and reunify them, they forgot to ask Taiwan," Yoho said. "Taiwan has never been part of the People's Republic of China, and nor do they want to."

Yoho was being interviewed on a program called "Red Storm," hosted by Lou, which focused on China's expansionist ambitions in the Asia-Pacific region.

US needs official ties with Taiwan

Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) have blatantly disregarded the agreement between the UK and China that allows autonomy for Hong Kong. The protests going on today in Hong Kong are a direct result of the CCP’s lack of respect for self-determination and rule of law.

The mainland government’s actions have demonstrated that the word and commitments of Xi and the Chinese ruling class cannot be trusted by the global community. This is yet another shameful situation for Xi and a self-inflicted wound by the CCP.

In 1997, the UK agreed to cede its claim to Hong Kong and return control of the territory to the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Part of the handover agreement requires Hong Kong to be an autonomous administrative district with a free market-based economic system for no less than 50 years. Chinese and British leaders agreed upon those terms in good faith, but now the Chinese leadership is ready to tear up that agreement.

The protests in Hong Kong over the past year are solely the result of Xi and the CCP’s machinations regarding the special administrative region and a lust for authoritarian power. Their goal is to remove any form of democratic governance from within their territorial boundaries.

In essence, Beijing has broadcast to the world that “the People’s Republic of China and the Chinese Communist Party cannot to be trusted.”

What does this say about the future relationship between Taiwan, the Republic of China, and the mainland PRC?

Xi and his communists have made threatening overtures stating that Taiwan is part of China and that the PRC will “reunify” the two nations by “draw[ing] blood if necessary.”

The idea that Taiwan is a territory belonging to the PRC is inherently false.

This notion comes from a vague meeting in 1992 referred to inappropriately as the “1992 consensus.” At that meeting, the concept of “one China” was discussed, but no consensus was agreed upon. The conclusion of that meeting has been interpreted differently by Taiwanese and PRC officials, but the fact remains: Taiwan is not and never has been part of communist China.

It is time for China to recognize Taiwan as the independent nation that it is. Taiwan has a sovereign and defined border, and its own form of democratic government, economy, military, flag and national anthem. The people of Taiwan view themselves as Taiwanese, not Chinese.

It is time for the US government to stand firm with Taiwan as a sovereign, self-ruling, independent and democratic nation.

For more than 40 years, the US government has been mandated by law to furnish defensive weapons to protect Taiwan’s sovereignty. If it does not lead the world on this issue and encourage partner nations to do the same, China will fill the gap and attempt to take Taiwan by force. This much was indicated last month when Beijing removed calls for “peaceful unification” with Taiwan in official documents.

That is why I will be introducing legislation requiring the US to defend Taiwan from forceful unification with the PRC.

In the prelude to any conflict, once the dominos begin to fall it is already too late to prepare. As we are witnessing the fate of the Hong Kong people, we must remember that this might only be the first domino. The next could easily be Taiwan.

Ted Yoho is the US representative for Florida’s Third Congressional District and is the ranking Republican member of the US House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Asia, the Pacific and Nonproliferation.

「防止台灣遭侵略法案」(Taiwan Invasion Prevention Act)

台灣防衛法 Taiwan Defense Act, 台灣關係法 Taiwan Relations Act
防止中國犯台野心 美議員將提案授權總統動武

長期對台灣友好的美國聯邦眾議員游賀(Ted Yoho)表示,美國對台灣做得不夠多,他會在本周提出「防止台灣遭侵略法案」,以因應中國犯台野心。若中國武力犯台,法案將授權美國總統動用武力。

擔任眾議院外委會亞太小組共和黨首席議員的游賀17日接受福斯財經新聞網(Fox Business Network)節目主持人魯道柏(Lou訪問,被問及在中國不斷威脅入侵台灣之際,美國對台灣做得是否足夠。

游賀直言,美國對台做得不夠,從前國務卿季辛吉(Henry Kissinger)時代以來,美國對台灣及對中國政策長期存有「戰略模糊」空間,目前也是依據前總統雷根(Ronald Reagan)任內協議,販售台灣武器自我防衛。

游賀表示,他將於本周提出「防止台灣遭侵略法案」(Taiwan Invasion Prevention Act),清楚闡明美方意向。他指出,法案將清楚明定,若中國侵犯台灣,將授權總統動用軍力因應,且設有5年落日條款。


本月稍早,游賀也連署支持共和黨籍眾議員蓋拉格(Mike Gallagher)6月30日提出的眾院版「台灣防衛法案」(Taiwan Defense Act)。這項法案最早是由共和黨籍聯邦參議員霍利(Josh Hawley)6月10日在參議院提出。

不同於游賀提出的新法案,「台灣防衛法案」意旨在事前維持美軍阻止中國武力犯台、造成「既成事實」的能力。法案定義的「既成事實」(fait accompli)是指中國在美軍有效反應前,利用武力控制台灣,並使美軍相信採取應對行動將非常困難,或得付出高成本。

【美台關係】應對中國犯台野心 美眾議員將提案授權總統動武

美國共和黨籍眾議員約霍(Ted Yoho)表示,美國對台灣做得不夠多,他會在本周提出《防止台灣遭侵略法案》(Taiwan Invasion Prevention Act),應對中國犯台野心。若中國武力犯台,法案將授權美國總統動用武力。

擔任眾議院外委會亞太小組委員會副主席的約霍接受霍士財經新聞網(Fox Business Network)節目主持人盧布斯(Lou訪問,被問及在中國不斷威脅入侵台灣之際,美國對台灣做得是否足夠。約霍直言,美國對台做得不夠,從美國前國務卿基辛格(Henry Kissinger)時代以來,美國對台灣及對中國政策長期存有「戰略模糊」空間,目前也是依據美國前總統列根(Ronald Reagan)任內協議,販售台灣武器自我防衞。



約霍早前聯署支持共和黨籍眾議員加拉格爾(Mike Gallagher)6月30日提出的眾院版《台灣防衞法案》(Taiwan Defense Act)。這項法案最早是由共和黨籍聯邦參議員霍利(Josh Hawley)6月10日在參議院提出。

不同於約霍提出的新法案,《台灣防衞法案》意旨在事前維持美軍阻止中國武力犯台、造成「既成事實」的能力。法案定義的「既成事實」(fait accompli)是指中國在美軍有效反應前,利用武力控制台灣,並使美軍相信採取應對行動將非常困難,或得付出高成本。


美眾議員擬授權總統動武「防中犯台」 中國官媒惱羞成怒

美國眾議院外委會亞太小組共和黨首席議員游賀(Ted Yoho)將提出「防止台灣遭進犯法案」(the Taiwan Invasion Prevention Act),打算授權美國總統在中國出兵犯台時動用武力。中國官媒一如往常惱羞成怒,《環球網》今(20)日就用報導標題宣稱,這是「今年聽過最大的笑話」。





美國會議員提「防止台灣遭侵略法案」 授權白宮對中國直接動武

美國眾議院外交委員會亞太小組主席約霍(Ted Yoho)17日在福斯財經新聞網(Fox Business Network)上提到,他將於下週提出「防止台灣遭侵略法案」(Taiwan Invasion Prevention Act)。據其說法,該法案會清楚明定,若中國侵犯台灣,將授權美國總統動用軍力(Authorization for Use of Military Force,AUMF)因應,且設有5年落日條款,以表明他們的決心。



GOP Rep predicts other nations will join US in standing up to China

【政經看民視】台灣是一個國家!Ted Yoho 親派助理訪政經!

【觀察】美議員將提案授權總統動武阻大陸攻台 是真要幫台灣嗎?
陸軍媒公布台軍兵力部署圖 號稱「攻台方案必備」
[Image: bkn-20200724212615062-0724_00952_001_01p...0724221606]




美參議院通過國防授權法案 建議邀台參與環太平洋軍演

法案建議,邀請台灣參與RIMPAC、美軍歐文堡國家訓練中心的聯合訓練,雙邊軍演及訓練;並根據《台灣旅行法》,增加美台高級軍事將領交流、擴大軍事醫療與人道災難救助合作等,美國國防部應派遣海軍醫療船安慰號(USNS Comfort)及仁慈號(USNS Mercy)停靠台灣,延續美台的抗疫合作。由於眾議院通過的國防授權法案有別於參議院版本,兩院將協商最終版本,並在兩院表決通過後,才能交白宮由總統簽署生效。
美國海軍陸戰隊司令伯格(David Berger)表示,將於2027年前在日本沖繩部署濱海作戰團,防止解放軍輕易突破第一島鏈。濱海作戰團是海軍陸戰隊改革後的新作戰部隊,會棄用多數加農炮及削減坦克在內的重型裝甲裝備,改為裝備導彈及無人機,強化反艦及防空能力。

台軍劍翔無人機投入量產 可壓制陸雷達陣地





牛津市議會42票通過 與台灣締結姊妹城市




美國軍隊參謀長聯席會議主席米利(Mark Milley)6月10日稱,若中國軍事侵略台灣且華府做出相應政治決定,美軍將有能力捍衛台灣。



拜登稱與中方領導人洽台議題 雙方同意遵守「台灣協議」






台周邊軍事活動加劇 美私下接觸北京





3天內近百架大陸軍機擾台 台空軍發F-16掛彈升空影片:絕不妥協

拜登稱與中方領導人洽台議題 雙方同意遵守「台灣協議」






美海軍本周公布戰略指南 逼陸棄攻台

美國新任海軍部長托羅(Carlos Del Toro)周二(5日)晚發表演說時,透露海軍本周將發布國家戰略指南文件,就美國海軍和海軍陸戰隊如何保持全球海上優勢、加強戰略夥伴關係及成功遏制中國威脅提出具體計劃。




美卿籲中國大陸 停止對台挑釁免誤判




駐日美軍練新戰術 瀕海火力分散制華





美遠征移動基地艦 常駐西太平洋制華

[Image: bkn-20211007193925251-1007_00992_001_01p...1007194352]

美國海軍加強在印太地區的部署應對中國,最新服役的遠征移動基地艦米格爾‧基思號(USS Miguel Keith)周三(6日)抵達日本沖繩縣。該艦負責支援瀕海作戰及特種作戰行動,今後永久部署塞班島,日後或在中國沿海水域巡航。



[ 本帖最後由 消失的老公 於 2021-10-7 08:14 編輯 ]
據報美軍秘密駐台灣訓練軍隊至少一年 北京批損害中美關係










據報美軍在台訓練軍隊逾一年 北京促美方停止美台軍事聯繫








拜登:倘中國攻台 美國將協防 白宮其後稱對台政策沒變

美國總統拜登(Joe Biden)10月21日稱美國將協防台灣,並稱美國有協防台灣的承諾。白宮其後表示,美對台政策沒變。



民主黨和共和黨議員當中,都有聲音要求拜登政府採取對台「戰略清晰」,放棄過去40多年的「戰略模糊」(strategic ambiguity)政策。




拜登:如果中國大陸動武 美國會保衛台灣


拜登周四在參加CNN活動時被問到他是否能承諾保護台灣,並給出了肯定的答案。「我不想與中國冷戰——我只是想讓中國明白,我們不會退後,我們不會改變任何觀點,」拜登在巴爾的摩告訴主持人Anderson Cooper。












原文標題Biden Says U.S. Would Defend Taiwan From Attack by China (4)

[ 本帖最後由 失踪的老公 於 2021-10-22 14:31 編輯 ]
美國共和黨參議員提出《台灣威懾法》 加強台灣防禦能力


名為《台灣威懾法》(Taiwan Deterrence Act)的法字,將授權美國每年從讓美國以外的地區購買美國生產的武器和國防設備的融資項目中,向台灣提供這筆資金,直到2032年。






「我們非常明確地表示我們支持《台灣法》,僅此而已,」 拜登周二在赴新罕布什爾州途中對記者說。他指美國1979年通過的《台灣關係法》。

它是獨立的。它自己做決定,」 他還說。


白宮發布的紀要顯示,拜登在峰會上對習近平強調,美國仍然致力於《台灣關係法》、三個聯合公報和六項保證指導下的 「一個中國」政策。「兩位領導人在台灣問題上談了很長時間,」 他的國家安全顧問沙利文周二在布魯金斯學會的一次活動上說,「總統提醒習近平,他當參議員的時候曾投票支持《台灣關係法》。」

「兩位領導人在台灣問題上花費了大量時間,」 沙利文說。



「這是一次不錯的會晤,」 拜登說,「我們做了很多跟進,我們成立了四個小組,我們將在一系列問題上把大家召集起來。我會在未來兩周向你們報告更多消息。」

拜登和習近平還討論了兩國如何「共同努力確保全球能源供應和價格波動不會危及全球經濟復甦,」 沙利文說,「兩位元首要求他們的團隊在這個問題上迅速開展協調。」




原文標題Biden Says After Xi Summit That Taiwan ‘Makes Its Own Decisions’

Biden Says After Xi Summit That Taiwan ‘Makes Its Own Decisions’

President Joe Biden said that Taiwan “makes its own decisions,” backing the island’s leaders anew after a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping intended to stabilize the tense relationship between the world’s two largest economies.

“We made very clear we support the Taiwan Act, and that’s it,” Biden told reporters Tuesday during a trip to New Hampshire, referring to the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act.

It’s independent. It makes its own decisions,” he added.

Even so, Biden said during the summit that the U.S. remains committed to its “One China” policy, according to a White House statement. Biden reminded Xi during the meeting that he voted as a senator to support Taiwan’s self-defense when the two discussed the island, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said Tuesday.

“The two leaders spent a good amount of time on the question of Taiwan,” Sullivan said at a Brookings Institution event on Tuesday.

The act established that the U.S. will support Taiwan’s self-defense with weapons sales and discourage any attempt by China to retake the island by force.

Sullivan was one of the few officials who participated in the summit, which lasted 3 1/2 hours. U.S. officials said the discussion was candid and respectful.

“It was a good meeting,” Biden said. “We’ve got a lot of follow-up on, we set up four groups, we’re going to get our folks together on a whole range of issues. I’ll have more to report to you in the next two weeks.”

As anticipated, the conversation between Biden and Xi was mostly aimed at setting the rules of engagement between the world’s two largest economies, in an effort to avoid unintended military conflict or economic damage. China and the U.S. have been at odds over Taiwan, the South China Sea, trade and human rights, among other issues.

The leaders also discussed how their countries “can work together to ensure global energy supply and price volatility do not imperil the global economic recovery,” Sullivan said. “The two presidents tasked their teams to coordinate on this issue expeditiously.”

【彭博】-- 美國財政部長耶倫表示,如果北京對台灣動武,拜登政府會準備好使用所有制裁工具懲罰中國。


耶倫在回答來自北卡羅來納州的共和黨眾議員Patrick McHenry提問時做了上述表示。後者問她財政部是否會像俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭後對待莫斯科那樣願意對中國實施制裁。

Yellen Says U.S. Would Use Sanctions If China Invaded Taiwan

Yellen Says U.S. Would Use Sanctions If China Invaded Taiwan
Treasury secretary comments during congressional hearing
‘You should not doubt’ U.S. resolve to use its tools

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the Biden administration would be prepared to use all its sanctions tools against China if Beijing moved aggressively toward Taiwan.

“I believe we’ve shown we can” impose significant pain on aggressive countries, as evidenced by sanctions against Russia, Yellen told lawmakers Wednesday as she testified before the House Financial Services Committee. “I think you should not doubt our ability and resolve to do the same in other situations.”

Yellen was responding to questions from Republican Representative Patrick McHenry of North Carolina over whether the Treasury would be as willing to use sanctions against China as it has against Russia following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.

Read more: Yellen to Warn War Threatens ‘Enormous Economic Repercussions’

Russia’s attack on Ukraine has undermined confidence that world powers would be able to prevent a crisis from similarly erupting over Taiwan, a democratically governed island of more than 23 million people and key global source of semiconductors. China has long claimed Taiwan as a renegade province and threatened to invade to prevent its independence.

Last month, China warned the U.S. against trying to build what it called a Pacific version of NATO, while declaring that security disputes over Taiwan and Ukraine were “not comparable at all.”

US Treasury Secretary Yellen: US open to all tools if China invaded Taiwan

The United States is open to all tools if China invades Taiwan, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Wednesday, reported Bloomberg. The US is monitoring attempts to use crypto to evade sanctions, she added, referring to sanctions on Russia.

A senior Biden administration official just announced that the US is "dramatically escalating" the financial shock on Russia by cutting off the country's largest banks. The US is to impose full blocking sanctions on Russia's Sberbank and Alfa Bank, the official added, while US President Joe Biden is also set to sign a new executive order banning all new investment in Russia.

Ukraine war: US spells out sanctions on Russia, heaping more pressure on China to comply

Among the various restrictions, if a Russia-bound item was made using American tools or equipment, it could be covered by Washington’s sanctions

But while Chinese firms may try to avoid running afoul of US sanctions, overall China-Russia trade should remain strong because most products will not be affected

Here’s What Could Happen If China Invaded Taiwan (Repeat)

[Image: 8c3a9db37455259b872c89bc9190ba4b]

(Bloomberg) — (This story was originally published in Oct. 2020. It’s being republished to accompany our Big Take on the risks of attacking Taiwan.)

Xi Jinping’s Chinese Communist Party has threatened to invade Taiwan for more than seven decades. Now fears are growing among analysts, officials and investors that it might actually follow through over the next few years, potentially triggering a war with the U.S.

In September, People’s Liberation Army aircraft repeatedly breached the median line in the Taiwan Strait, eliminating a de facto buffer zone that has kept peace for decades. The party-run Global Times newspaper has given a picture of what could come, urging China’s air force to patrol the skies over Taiwan and “achieve reunification through military means” if it fires any shots. Taiwan announced it would only shoot if attacked.

Despite the saber rattling, China and Taiwan have many reasons to avoid a war that could kill tens of thousands, devastate their economies and potentially lead to a nuclear conflict with the U.S. and its allies. The overwhelming consensus remains that Beijing will continue efforts to control Taiwan through military threats, diplomatic isolation and economic incentives. Equities in Taiwan have recently hit record highs.

But several forces may push them toward action: President Xi Jinping’s desire to cement his legacy by gaining “lost” territory, falling support among Taiwan’s public for any union with China, the rise of pro-independence forces in Taipei and the U.S.’s increasingly hostile relationship with Beijing on everything from Hong Kong to the coronavirus to cutting-edge technology.

“I am increasingly concerned that a major crisis is coming,” said Ian Easton, senior director at the Project 2049 Institute who wrote “The Chinese Invasion Threat: Taiwan’s Defense and American Strategy in Asia.” “It is possible to envision this ending in an all-out invasion attempt and superpower war. The next five to 10 years are going to be dangerous ones. This flash point is fundamentally unstable.”

Taiwan will be among the most pressing security issues facing whoever wins the U.S. election on Nov. 3. While Taipei has enjoyed a resurgence of bipartisan support in Washington and the Trump administration has made unprecedented overtures, President Donald Trump himself has expressed skepticism about Taiwan’s strategic value. Democratic nominee Joe Biden has previously said Congress should decide whether the U.S. should defend Taiwan in any attack.

Analysts such as Easton have gamed out scenarios of a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan for years, based on military exercises, arms purchases and strategy documents from the major players. Most of them foresee China going for a quick knockout, in which the PLA overwhelms the main island before the U.S. could help out.

On paper, the military balance heavily favors Beijing. China spends about 25 times more on its military than Taiwan, according to estimates from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, and has a clear conventional edge on everything from missiles and fighter jets to warships and troop levels — not to mention its nuclear arsenal.

Beijing’s optimistic version of events goes something like this: Prior to an invasion, cyber and electronic warfare units would target Taiwan’s financial system and key infrastructure, as well as U.S. satellites to reduce notice of impending ballistic missiles. Chinese vessels could also harass ships around Taiwan, restricting vital supplies of fuel and food.

Airstrikes would quickly aim to kill Taiwan’s top political and military leaders, while also immobilizing local defenses. The Chinese military has described some drills as “decapitation” exercises, and satellite imagery shows its training grounds include full-scale replicas of targets such as the Presidential Office Building.

An invasion would follow, with PLA warships and submarines traversing some 130 kilometers (80 miles) across the Taiwan Strait. Outlying islands such as Kinmen and Pratas could be quickly subsumed before a fight for the Penghu archipelago, which sits just 50 kilometers from Taiwan and is home to bases for all three branches of its military. A PLA win here would provide it with a valuable staging point for a broader attack.

As Chinese ships speed across the strait, thousands of paratroopers would appear above Taiwan’s coastlines, looking to penetrate defenses, capture strategic buildings and establish beachheads through which the PLA could bring in tens of thousands of soldiers who would secure a decisive victory.

In reality, any invasion is likely to be much riskier. Taiwan has prepared for one for decades, even if lately it has struggled to match China’s growing military advantage.

Taiwan’s main island has natural defenses: Surrounded by rough seas with unpredictable weather, its rugged coastline offers few places with a wide beach suitable for a large ship that could bring in enough troops to subdue its 24 million people. The mountainous terrain is riddled with tunnels designed to keep key leaders alive, and could provide cover for insurgents if China established control.

Taiwan in 2018 unveiled a plan to boost asymmetric capabilities like mobile missile systems that could avoid detection, making it unlikely Beijing could quickly destroy all of its defensive weaponry. With thousands of surface-to-air missiles and anti-aircraft guns, Taiwan could inflict heavy losses on the Chinese invasion force before it reached the main island.

Taiwan’s military has fortified defenses around key landing points and regularly conducts drills to repel Chinese forces arriving by sea and from the air. In July outside of the western port of Taichung, Apache helicopters, F-16s and Taiwan’s own domestically developed fighter jets sent plumes of seawater into the sky as they fired offshore while M60 tanks, artillery guns and missile batteries pummeled targets on the beach.

Chinese troops who make it ashore would face roughly 175,000 full-time soldiers and more than 1 million reservists ready to resist an occupation. Taiwan this week announced it would set up a defense mobilization agency to ensure they were better prepared for combat, the Taipei Times reported. Other options for Beijing, such as an indiscriminate bombing campaign that kills hundreds of thousands of civilians, would hurt the Communist Party’s ultimate goal of showcasing Taiwan as a prosperous territory with loyal Chinese citizens, Michael Beckley, who’s advised the Pentagon and U.S. intelligence communities, wrote in a 2017 paper.

“The PLA clearly would have its hands full just dealing with Taiwan’s defenders,” Beckley wrote. “Consequently, the United States would only need to tip the scales of the battle to foil a Chinese invasion.”

The potential involvement of the U.S. is a key wild card when assessing an invasion scenario. American naval power has long deterred China from any attack, even though the U.S. scrapped its mutual defense treaty with Taiwan in 1979 as a condition for establishing diplomatic ties with Beijing. The Taiwan Relations Act authorizes American weapons sales to “maintain a sufficient self-defense capability.”

Failing to intervene could hurt U.S. prestige on scale similar to the U.K.’s failed bid to regain control of the Suez Canal in 1956, Ray Dalio, the billionaire founder of Bridgewater Associates, wrote on Sept. 25. That crisis accelerated the disintegration of the British Empire and signaled the pound’s decline as a reserve currency in favor of the dollar, Dalio said.

“The more of a show the U.S. makes of defending Taiwan the greater the humiliation of a lost war,” he said. “That is concerning because the United States has been making quite a show of defending Taiwan while destiny appears to be bringing that closer to a reality.”

China’s Anti-Secession Law is vague on what would actually trigger an armed conflict. Its state-run media have warned that any U.S. military deployment to Taiwan would trigger a war — one of several apparent red lines, along with a move for Taipei’s government to declare legal independence. State broadcaster CCTV recently warned “the first battle would be the last battle.”

Since the Communist Party’s legitimacy is based in part on a pledge to “unify” China, its hold on the country’s 1.4 billion people could weaken if it allowed Taiwan to become an independent country. And while any invasion even of outlying islands carries the risks of economic sanctions or a destabilizing conflict, threats issued in state-run media allow Beijing to appeal to a domestic audience and deter Taiwan at the same time.

The PLA Air Force released a video in September showing H-6 bombers making a simulated strike on a runway that looked like one at Anderson Air Force Base on Guam, a key staging area for any U.S. support for Taiwan. The Global Times reported that China’s intermediate ballistic missiles such as the DF-26 could take out American bases while its air defenses shoot down incoming firepower.

This is a worry for U.S. military planners. A University of Sydney study warned last year that America “no longer enjoys military primacy” over China and that U.S. bases, airstrips and ports in the region “could be rendered useless by precision strikes in the opening hours of a conflict.”

“Beijing’s strategy isn’t just based on undermining Taiwan’s resistance, it’s also a gamble on how the U.S. will approach the cross-strait issue,” Daniel Russel, a former top State Department official under President Barack Obama, said in Taipei on Sept. 8. “The strongest driver of increased Chinese assertiveness is the conviction that the Western system, and the U.S. in particular, is in decay.”

In August, China fired four missiles into the South China Sea capable of destroying U.S. bases and aircraft carriers. Since the DF-26 can be armed with both nuclear and conventional warheads, arms-control experts have worried that any signs China was mobilizing to fire one could trigger a preemptive U.S. strike against Chinese nuclear forces — potentially leading to an uncontrollable conflict.

Whether the world will ever get to that moment largely hinges on political leaders in Beijing and Washington.

Some in the U.S., like Trump’s former national security adviser, John Bolton, wanted the administration to do much more to show it would come to Taiwan’s aid. Richard Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations, argued last month that the U.S. should explicitly state it would intervene to deter Xi and reassure allies.

“Above all, Xi is motivated by a desire to maintain the CCP’s dominance of China’s political system,” Haass wrote in Foreign Affairs magazine on Sept. 2 in a piece co-authored with David Sacks. “A failed bid to ‘reunify’ Taiwan with China would put that dominance in peril, and that is a risk Xi is unlikely to take.”

China’s military said in September that it would defeat Taiwan independence “at all cost.” Ma Xiaoguang, a spokesman for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office in Beijing, separately warned that Tsai’s pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party was “totally misjudging” the situation.

Taiwanese officials have also said China’s military threat is rising, even though Defense Minister Yen De-fa told lawmakers on Sept. 29 there’s no sign the PLA is amassing troops for an invasion.

“We simply have to be prepared for the worst,” said Enoch Wu, a former non-commissioned officer in Taiwan’s special forces now with Tsai's ruling party who heads the Taipei-based Forward Alliance, a group that promotes security reforms. “China is no longer ‘biding its time’ and no longer trying to win hearts and minds.”

Ultimately, Xi would need to order any attack. Last year he said “peaceful reunification” would be best even though he wouldn’t “renounce the use of force.” He called Taiwan’s integration with China “a must for the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation in the new era” — a key reason he’s used to justify scrapping presidential term limits in becoming China’s most powerful leader since Mao Zedong.

While an invasion carries enormous risks for the party, Xi has shown he will take strong action on territorial disputes. He’s ignored international condemnation in squashing Hong Kong’s pro-democracy camp, militarizing contested South China Sea land features and setting up reeducation camps for more than a million Muslim Uighurs in Xinjiang.

That record worries analysts like Easton, who wrote the book on China’s invasion threat.

“Taiwan fighting by itself could make Beijing pay a terrible price, at least several hundreds of thousands in casualties,” he said. “But that may be a price Xi Jinping is willing to pay. We underestimate the CCP’s capacity for radical decision making at our peril.”
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美財長耶倫:若中國攻台 將面臨與俄同等制裁


據美國彭博社4月6日報道,美財長耶倫(Janet Yellen)6日表示,如果北京對台灣採取激進行動,拜登(Joe Biden)政府將準備對中國使用所有制裁工具

據報道,耶倫6日在眾議院金融服務委員會(House Financial Services Committee)作報告時,北卡羅來納州共和黨眾議員麥克亨利(Patrick McHenry)向其提問稱,假如中國對台灣採取行動,財政部是否會像在俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭後對俄一樣對中國實施制裁?



大陸孤立台灣 美智庫促華府外交抵制




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