05-29-2022, 02:16 PM
經濟學人諷習近平 摧毀中國經濟
https://ec.ltn.com.tw/article/breakingnews/3941594
經濟學人以1梗圖嘲諷習近平,認為習必須為中國經濟下行負最大責任。(圖擷取經濟學人推特)
〔財經頻道/綜合報導〕習近平清零防疫就像鬧劇,搞砸了中國經濟。《經濟學人》最新封面故事以「習近平是怎麼摧毀中國經濟」為題,還PO出習近平一步一步走下台階的畫面,極盡嘲諷。文章直言如果習堅持繼續走這條路,中國經濟增長會更慢,也更難以預測。
《經濟學人》最新報導,在過去的 20 年裡,中國一直是世界經濟最大增長來源。在此期間,它貢獻了全球GDP增長的4分之1,並在 80 個季度中,有 79 個季度實現增長。
如今,輝煌日子已逝,中國經濟正處於危險之中,擺在眼前的清零政策,使其經濟步履蹣跚。4 月份的零售額比去年同期閃崩 11%,工業產出和出口量已經下降。習近平必須對經濟遭受重創負最大責任。
首先是他的零疫情政策,該政策已經執行了 28 個月,竟然還有1 億名 60 歲以上的人沒有接種第三劑,而且還拒絕進口更有效的西方mRNA疫苗。另外,整肅行動也讓佔中國生產總值 8% 的科技行業陷入停滯,佔GDP 5分之1的房地產直接窒息,4 月份房屋銷售量與去年同期雪崩 47%。
在經濟全面下行下,中國總理李克強敦促官員盡速恢復增長,央行也下調抵押貸款利率,並試圖安撫驚恐的科技大亨、推出基礎設施計劃。但是,在寬鬆的資金寬鬆以及再多的混凝土,都難以消除封城對經濟的傷害。金融市場出現了大量資金外流,外企加速撤離,蘋果則正在採取更多措施來重新平衡中國以外的供應鏈。
隨著中國越來越封閉,習近平在政治上似乎沒有對手,個人專制統治的缺陷也會加顯而易見。如果習近平繼續堅持以意識形態鬥爭改造國家資本主義的路線,中國經濟將增長得更慢,更難以預測,亦將對世界產生重大影響。
How Xi Jinping is damaging China’s economy
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2022/0...as-economy
Inflexible policies are trumping pragmatism
Over the past 20 years China has been the biggest and most reliable source of growth in the world economy. It contributed a quarter of the rise in global gdp over that period and expanded in 79 of 80 quarters. For most of the period since China opened up after Mao’s death, the Communist Party has taken a practical approach to making the country richer, mixing market reforms with state control. Now, however, China’s economy is in danger. The immediate issue is its zero-covid campaign, which has caused a slump and may condemn the economy to a stop-start pattern. That is compounding a bigger problem: President Xi Jinping’s ideological struggle to remake state capitalism. If it stays on this path China will grow more slowly and be less predictable, with big consequences for it and the world.
After nearly two months the lockdown of Shanghai is easing, but China is far from being covid-free, with fresh outbreaks in Beijing and Tianjin. More than 200m people have been living under restrictions and the economy is reeling. Retail sales in April were 11% lower than a year earlier and purchases of kfc, cars and Cartier are weak. Although some workers are living on factory floors, industrial output and export volumes have dipped. For the full year China may struggle to grow much faster than America for the first time since 1990, in the aftermath of the massacre near Tiananmen Square. For Mr Xi the timing is awful: after the 20th party congress later this year, he intends to be confirmed for a third term as president, breaking the recent norm that leaders bow out after two.
The Problem With Xi’s China Model
Why Its Successes Are Becoming Liabilities
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/...hina-model
As China’s National People’s Congress and its advisory body, the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, gather this March in Beijing for their annual two-week sessions to discuss the country’s challenges and path forward, President Xi Jinping may well be tempted to take a victory lap. Within his first five years in office, he has pioneered his own style of Chinese politics, at last upending the model Deng Xiaoping established 30 years ago. As I wrote in Foreign Affairs last year (“China’s New Revolution,” May/June 2018), Xi has moved away from Deng’s consensus-based decision-making and consolidated
China’s slowdown
https://www.economist.com/weeklyedition/2022-05-28
China Economy Faces Worst Slowdown Since Pandemic, Nomura Says
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...omura-says
China’s economic growth worsened in first quarter: economists
Markets should be concerned about a further slide: Nomura
China’s economy faces its worst downward pressure since the spring of 2020 when it was hit by the first wave of Covid-19, according to Nomura Holdings Inc.
The slowdown in China’s growth worsened in the first quarter and markets should be concerned about a further slide in the second, Nomura Holdings Inc. economists including Lu Ting wrote in a note Saturday. Economic activities “may notably deteriorate across the board” in March, weighed down by increasing mobility restrictions across the country and a continued property sector slump, they said.
With the outbreaks suppressing a wide range of sectors, including in-person services, construction and some manufacturing activity, “it’s getting harder for Beijing to achieve its ‘around 5.5%’ GDP growth target for 2022,” the economists said.
The investment bank cut its estimate for China’s growth for April through December, citing the worsening Covid-19 situation. While the economists revised up expectations for expansion in the first three months to 4.2%, they noted that their existing 2.9% forecast may reflect the “real economic situation on the ground quite well.”
The upward revision mainly shows the surprisingly strong official data for the January-February period. It did not lead to a change in the bank’s full-year forecast, which stands at 4.3%.
China’s economy had a stronger-than-expected start to the year, with consumer spending, investment and industrial output all beating forecasts. The outlook, however, has turned increasingly grim as the nation battles its worst Covid outbreak since it emerged in Wuhan two years ago, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine throws global financial markets and energy prices into turmoil.
Production activities in the country’s tech and manufacturing hub Shenzhen and automotive city Changchun have been disrupted by virus control measures, while residents in the financial center of Shanghai were told to stay at home as the city conducts rounds of mass testings.
China reported 5,600 new Covid-19 cases on Saturday, the most daily infections in more than two years.
Despite the impressive official activity data, the economists wrote, policy makers will likely “further ramp up easing measures to stem what is actually a worsening growth slowdown.” They expect the central bank to cut banks’ reserve requirement ratio by 50 basis points over the next couple of months, and the one-year medium-term lending facility rate and the 7-day reverse repurchase agreements rate by around 10 basis points in April.
It’s also likely that Beijing will allow more local governments to ease local property curbs, they said.
https://ec.ltn.com.tw/article/breakingnews/3941594
經濟學人以1梗圖嘲諷習近平,認為習必須為中國經濟下行負最大責任。(圖擷取經濟學人推特)
〔財經頻道/綜合報導〕習近平清零防疫就像鬧劇,搞砸了中國經濟。《經濟學人》最新封面故事以「習近平是怎麼摧毀中國經濟」為題,還PO出習近平一步一步走下台階的畫面,極盡嘲諷。文章直言如果習堅持繼續走這條路,中國經濟增長會更慢,也更難以預測。
《經濟學人》最新報導,在過去的 20 年裡,中國一直是世界經濟最大增長來源。在此期間,它貢獻了全球GDP增長的4分之1,並在 80 個季度中,有 79 個季度實現增長。
如今,輝煌日子已逝,中國經濟正處於危險之中,擺在眼前的清零政策,使其經濟步履蹣跚。4 月份的零售額比去年同期閃崩 11%,工業產出和出口量已經下降。習近平必須對經濟遭受重創負最大責任。
首先是他的零疫情政策,該政策已經執行了 28 個月,竟然還有1 億名 60 歲以上的人沒有接種第三劑,而且還拒絕進口更有效的西方mRNA疫苗。另外,整肅行動也讓佔中國生產總值 8% 的科技行業陷入停滯,佔GDP 5分之1的房地產直接窒息,4 月份房屋銷售量與去年同期雪崩 47%。
在經濟全面下行下,中國總理李克強敦促官員盡速恢復增長,央行也下調抵押貸款利率,並試圖安撫驚恐的科技大亨、推出基礎設施計劃。但是,在寬鬆的資金寬鬆以及再多的混凝土,都難以消除封城對經濟的傷害。金融市場出現了大量資金外流,外企加速撤離,蘋果則正在採取更多措施來重新平衡中國以外的供應鏈。
隨著中國越來越封閉,習近平在政治上似乎沒有對手,個人專制統治的缺陷也會加顯而易見。如果習近平繼續堅持以意識形態鬥爭改造國家資本主義的路線,中國經濟將增長得更慢,更難以預測,亦將對世界產生重大影響。
How Xi Jinping is damaging China’s economy
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2022/0...as-economy
Inflexible policies are trumping pragmatism
Over the past 20 years China has been the biggest and most reliable source of growth in the world economy. It contributed a quarter of the rise in global gdp over that period and expanded in 79 of 80 quarters. For most of the period since China opened up after Mao’s death, the Communist Party has taken a practical approach to making the country richer, mixing market reforms with state control. Now, however, China’s economy is in danger. The immediate issue is its zero-covid campaign, which has caused a slump and may condemn the economy to a stop-start pattern. That is compounding a bigger problem: President Xi Jinping’s ideological struggle to remake state capitalism. If it stays on this path China will grow more slowly and be less predictable, with big consequences for it and the world.
After nearly two months the lockdown of Shanghai is easing, but China is far from being covid-free, with fresh outbreaks in Beijing and Tianjin. More than 200m people have been living under restrictions and the economy is reeling. Retail sales in April were 11% lower than a year earlier and purchases of kfc, cars and Cartier are weak. Although some workers are living on factory floors, industrial output and export volumes have dipped. For the full year China may struggle to grow much faster than America for the first time since 1990, in the aftermath of the massacre near Tiananmen Square. For Mr Xi the timing is awful: after the 20th party congress later this year, he intends to be confirmed for a third term as president, breaking the recent norm that leaders bow out after two.
The Problem With Xi’s China Model
Why Its Successes Are Becoming Liabilities
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/...hina-model
As China’s National People’s Congress and its advisory body, the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, gather this March in Beijing for their annual two-week sessions to discuss the country’s challenges and path forward, President Xi Jinping may well be tempted to take a victory lap. Within his first five years in office, he has pioneered his own style of Chinese politics, at last upending the model Deng Xiaoping established 30 years ago. As I wrote in Foreign Affairs last year (“China’s New Revolution,” May/June 2018), Xi has moved away from Deng’s consensus-based decision-making and consolidated
China’s slowdown
https://www.economist.com/weeklyedition/2022-05-28
China Economy Faces Worst Slowdown Since Pandemic, Nomura Says
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...omura-says
China’s economic growth worsened in first quarter: economists
Markets should be concerned about a further slide: Nomura
China’s economy faces its worst downward pressure since the spring of 2020 when it was hit by the first wave of Covid-19, according to Nomura Holdings Inc.
The slowdown in China’s growth worsened in the first quarter and markets should be concerned about a further slide in the second, Nomura Holdings Inc. economists including Lu Ting wrote in a note Saturday. Economic activities “may notably deteriorate across the board” in March, weighed down by increasing mobility restrictions across the country and a continued property sector slump, they said.
With the outbreaks suppressing a wide range of sectors, including in-person services, construction and some manufacturing activity, “it’s getting harder for Beijing to achieve its ‘around 5.5%’ GDP growth target for 2022,” the economists said.
The investment bank cut its estimate for China’s growth for April through December, citing the worsening Covid-19 situation. While the economists revised up expectations for expansion in the first three months to 4.2%, they noted that their existing 2.9% forecast may reflect the “real economic situation on the ground quite well.”
The upward revision mainly shows the surprisingly strong official data for the January-February period. It did not lead to a change in the bank’s full-year forecast, which stands at 4.3%.
China’s economy had a stronger-than-expected start to the year, with consumer spending, investment and industrial output all beating forecasts. The outlook, however, has turned increasingly grim as the nation battles its worst Covid outbreak since it emerged in Wuhan two years ago, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine throws global financial markets and energy prices into turmoil.
Production activities in the country’s tech and manufacturing hub Shenzhen and automotive city Changchun have been disrupted by virus control measures, while residents in the financial center of Shanghai were told to stay at home as the city conducts rounds of mass testings.
China reported 5,600 new Covid-19 cases on Saturday, the most daily infections in more than two years.
Despite the impressive official activity data, the economists wrote, policy makers will likely “further ramp up easing measures to stem what is actually a worsening growth slowdown.” They expect the central bank to cut banks’ reserve requirement ratio by 50 basis points over the next couple of months, and the one-year medium-term lending facility rate and the 7-day reverse repurchase agreements rate by around 10 basis points in April.
It’s also likely that Beijing will allow more local governments to ease local property curbs, they said.