Thread Rating:
  • 0 Vote(s) - 0 Average
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
「防止台灣遭侵略法案」(Taiwan Invasion Prevention Act)
#1
「防止台灣遭侵略法案」(Taiwan Invasion Prevention Act)

U.S. lawmaker to introduce bill to deter China attack on Taiwan
https://focustaiwan.tw/politics/202007200007
Washington, July 19 (CNA) Republican House Representative Ted Yoho said over the weekend that he plans to put forth a bill that would authorize the president of the United States to respond with military force if China decides to attack Taiwan.

"We are introducing a bill next week that's going to be called the Taiwan Invasion Prevention Act," Yoho said in an interview on Fox Business Network last Friday.

The Republican congressman, who is a member of the U.S. House of Representative's subcommittee on Asian affairs, made the announcement in response to a question on whether the American government was doing enough to back Taiwan amid China's constant threats.

"This [Taiwan Invasion Prevention Act] is something that's going to lay very clear what our intent is," said Yoho, a vocal supporter of Taiwan. "In fact, it will go to the point where it authorizes an AUMF (Authorization for Use of Military Force) if China invades Taiwan, and it'll be a sunset for five years, that AUMF, that would authorize the president to use force."

He noted that under the U.S.' current Taiwan Relations Act that took effect in 1979, the U.S. is committed to sell Taiwan enough weapons to defend itself.

"But when Xi Jinping has announced that he's ready to draw blood over Taiwan and reunify them, they forgot to ask Taiwan," Yoho said. "Taiwan has never been part of the People's Republic of China, and nor do they want to."

Yoho was being interviewed on a program called "Red Storm," hosted by Lou Do.forum4hk.com, which focused on China's expansionist ambitions in the Asia-Pacific region.



U.S. lawmaker to introduce bill to deter China attack on Taiwan
https://focustaiwan.tw/politics/202007200007

Washington, July 19 (CNA) Republican House Representative Ted Yoho said over the weekend that he plans to put forth a bill that would authorize the president of the United States to respond with military force if China decides to attack Taiwan.

"We are introducing a bill next week that's going to be called the Taiwan Invasion Prevention Act," Yoho said in an interview on Fox Business Network last Friday.

The Republican congressman, who is a member of the U.S. House of Representative's subcommittee on Asian affairs, made the announcement in response to a question on whether the American government was doing enough to back Taiwan amid China's constant threats.

"This [Taiwan Invasion Prevention Act] is something that's going to lay very clear what our intent is," said Yoho, a vocal supporter of Taiwan. "In fact, it will go to the point where it authorizes an AUMF (Authorization for Use of Military Force) if China invades Taiwan, and it'll be a sunset for five years, that AUMF, that would authorize the president to use force."

He noted that under the U.S.' current Taiwan Relations Act that took effect in 1979, the U.S. is committed to sell Taiwan enough weapons to defend itself.

"But when Xi Jinping has announced that he's ready to draw blood over Taiwan and reunify them, they forgot to ask Taiwan," Yoho said. "Taiwan has never been part of the People's Republic of China, and nor do they want to."

Yoho was being interviewed on a program called "Red Storm," hosted by Lou Do.forum4hk.com, which focused on China's expansionist ambitions in the Asia-Pacific region.



US needs official ties with Taiwan
https://yoho.house.gov/media-center/in-t...ith-taiwan

Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) have blatantly disregarded the agreement between the UK and China that allows autonomy for Hong Kong. The protests going on today in Hong Kong are a direct result of the CCP’s lack of respect for self-determination and rule of law.

The mainland government’s actions have demonstrated that the word and commitments of Xi and the Chinese ruling class cannot be trusted by the global community. This is yet another shameful situation for Xi and a self-inflicted wound by the CCP.

In 1997, the UK agreed to cede its claim to Hong Kong and return control of the territory to the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Part of the handover agreement requires Hong Kong to be an autonomous administrative district with a free market-based economic system for no less than 50 years. Chinese and British leaders agreed upon those terms in good faith, but now the Chinese leadership is ready to tear up that agreement.

The protests in Hong Kong over the past year are solely the result of Xi and the CCP’s machinations regarding the special administrative region and a lust for authoritarian power. Their goal is to remove any form of democratic governance from within their territorial boundaries.

In essence, Beijing has broadcast to the world that “the People’s Republic of China and the Chinese Communist Party cannot to be trusted.”

What does this say about the future relationship between Taiwan, the Republic of China, and the mainland PRC?

Xi and his communists have made threatening overtures stating that Taiwan is part of China and that the PRC will “reunify” the two nations by “draw[ing] blood if necessary.”

The idea that Taiwan is a territory belonging to the PRC is inherently false.

This notion comes from a vague meeting in 1992 referred to inappropriately as the “1992 consensus.” At that meeting, the concept of “one China” was discussed, but no consensus was agreed upon. The conclusion of that meeting has been interpreted differently by Taiwanese and PRC officials, but the fact remains: Taiwan is not and never has been part of communist China.

It is time for China to recognize Taiwan as the independent nation that it is. Taiwan has a sovereign and defined border, and its own form of democratic government, economy, military, flag and national anthem. The people of Taiwan view themselves as Taiwanese, not Chinese.

It is time for the US government to stand firm with Taiwan as a sovereign, self-ruling, independent and democratic nation.

For more than 40 years, the US government has been mandated by law to furnish defensive weapons to protect Taiwan’s sovereignty. If it does not lead the world on this issue and encourage partner nations to do the same, China will fill the gap and attempt to take Taiwan by force. This much was indicated last month when Beijing removed calls for “peaceful unification” with Taiwan in official documents.

That is why I will be introducing legislation requiring the US to defend Taiwan from forceful unification with the PRC.

In the prelude to any conflict, once the dominos begin to fall it is already too late to prepare. As we are witnessing the fate of the Hong Kong people, we must remember that this might only be the first domino. The next could easily be Taiwan.

Ted Yoho is the US representative for Florida’s Third Congressional District and is the ranking Republican member of the US House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Asia, the Pacific and Nonproliferation.

「防止台灣遭侵略法案」(Taiwan Invasion Prevention Act)
http://www.forum4hk.com/viewthread.php?tid=14620558

台灣防衛法 Taiwan Defense Act, 台灣關係法 Taiwan Relations Act
http://www.forum4hk.com/viewthread.php?tid=14620425
Reply
#2
防止中國犯台野心 美議員將提案授權總統動武
https://www.worldjournal.com/7054946/art...1%E8%81%9E

長期對台灣友好的美國聯邦眾議員游賀(Ted Yoho)表示,美國對台灣做得不夠多,他會在本周提出「防止台灣遭侵略法案」,以因應中國犯台野心。若中國武力犯台,法案將授權美國總統動用武力。

擔任眾議院外委會亞太小組共和黨首席議員的游賀17日接受福斯財經新聞網(Fox Business Network)節目主持人魯道柏(Lou Do.forum4hk.com)訪問,被問及在中國不斷威脅入侵台灣之際,美國對台灣做得是否足夠。

游賀直言,美國對台做得不夠,從前國務卿季辛吉(Henry Kissinger)時代以來,美國對台灣及對中國政策長期存有「戰略模糊」空間,目前也是依據前總統雷根(Ronald Reagan)任內協議,販售台灣武器自我防衛。

游賀表示,他將於本周提出「防止台灣遭侵略法案」(Taiwan Invasion Prevention Act),清楚闡明美方意向。他指出,法案將清楚明定,若中國侵犯台灣,將授權總統動用軍力因應,且設有5年落日條款。

游賀說,中國國家主席習近平已表明,為了統一台灣不惜流血,但北京從沒問過台灣意願。他強調:「台灣從不屬於中華人民共和國一部分,台灣人也不想成為中國一部分,(兩岸)需要和平協商,我們會看事態如何發展。」

本月稍早,游賀也連署支持共和黨籍眾議員蓋拉格(Mike Gallagher)6月30日提出的眾院版「台灣防衛法案」(Taiwan Defense Act)。這項法案最早是由共和黨籍聯邦參議員霍利(Josh Hawley)6月10日在參議院提出。

不同於游賀提出的新法案,「台灣防衛法案」意旨在事前維持美軍阻止中國武力犯台、造成「既成事實」的能力。法案定義的「既成事實」(fait accompli)是指中國在美軍有效反應前,利用武力控制台灣,並使美軍相信採取應對行動將非常困難,或得付出高成本。

【美台關係】應對中國犯台野心 美眾議員將提案授權總統動武
https://hk.sports.appledaily.com/interna...UMS4NLKVI/

美國共和黨籍眾議員約霍(Ted Yoho)表示,美國對台灣做得不夠多,他會在本周提出《防止台灣遭侵略法案》(Taiwan Invasion Prevention Act),應對中國犯台野心。若中國武力犯台,法案將授權美國總統動用武力。

擔任眾議院外委會亞太小組委員會副主席的約霍接受霍士財經新聞網(Fox Business Network)節目主持人盧布斯(Lou Do.forum4hk.com)訪問,被問及在中國不斷威脅入侵台灣之際,美國對台灣做得是否足夠。約霍直言,美國對台做得不夠,從美國前國務卿基辛格(Henry Kissinger)時代以來,美國對台灣及對中國政策長期存有「戰略模糊」空間,目前也是依據美國前總統列根(Ronald Reagan)任內協議,販售台灣武器自我防衞。

有鑑於此,約霍表示,他將於本周提出《防止台灣遭侵略法案》,清楚闡明美方意向。他指出,法案將清楚明定,若中國侵犯台灣,將授權美國總統動用軍力因應,且設有五年日落條款。

約霍說,中國國家主席習近平已表明,為了統一台灣他不惜濺血,但北京從沒問過台灣意願。他強調:「台灣從不屬於中華人民共和國一部份,台灣人也不想成為中國一部份,(兩岸)需要和平協商,我們會看事態如何發展。」

約霍早前聯署支持共和黨籍眾議員加拉格爾(Mike Gallagher)6月30日提出的眾院版《台灣防衞法案》(Taiwan Defense Act)。這項法案最早是由共和黨籍聯邦參議員霍利(Josh Hawley)6月10日在參議院提出。

不同於約霍提出的新法案,《台灣防衞法案》意旨在事前維持美軍阻止中國武力犯台、造成「既成事實」的能力。法案定義的「既成事實」(fait accompli)是指中國在美軍有效反應前,利用武力控制台灣,並使美軍相信採取應對行動將非常困難,或得付出高成本。

美國霍士新聞網/中央社

美眾議員擬授權總統動武「防中犯台」 中國官媒惱羞成怒
https://news.ltn.com.tw/news/politics/br...ws/3234096

美國眾議院外委會亞太小組共和黨首席議員游賀(Ted Yoho)將提出「防止台灣遭進犯法案」(the Taiwan Invasion Prevention Act),打算授權美國總統在中國出兵犯台時動用武力。中國官媒一如往常惱羞成怒,《環球網》今(20)日就用報導標題宣稱,這是「今年聽過最大的笑話」。

長期挺台的游賀17日在福斯電視台「盧‧道布斯今夜」節目中受訪提及,他將提出「防止台灣遭進犯法案」,該法案將授權總統在中國進犯台灣時動用武力(AUMF),並且設有5年「落日條款」,強調「這個法案將明確表達我們的決心」。

外交部昨(19日)表示,感謝美國國會議員近年採取多項友我作為,以具體行動展現對台海和平穩定的重視。

而中國官媒《環球網》則一如往常看到美國友台消息就氣急敗壞,卻拐歪抹角拿「台灣網友」掩飾,今日以「美議員將提案授權總統為台灣對中國大陸動武?台網民:今年聽過最大的笑話」為標題撰文反酸,還急著引述中國國防部發言人吳謙15日的說法,重提老話「台灣是中國不可分割的一部分」。

吳謙當時宣稱,民進黨當局「挾洋自重永無出路,以武謀獨死路一條」,還稱「中國人民解放軍將採取一切必要措施,堅決捍衛國家主權和領土完整,堅定維護台海地區和平穩定」。

美國會議員提「防止台灣遭侵略法案」 授權白宮對中國直接動武
https://www.upmedia.mg/news_info.php?SerialNo=91917

美國眾議院外交委員會亞太小組主席約霍(Ted Yoho)17日在福斯財經新聞網(Fox Business Network)上提到,他將於下週提出「防止台灣遭侵略法案」(Taiwan Invasion Prevention Act)。據其說法,該法案會清楚明定,若中國侵犯台灣,將授權美國總統動用軍力(Authorization for Use of Military Force,AUMF)因應,且設有5年落日條款,以表明他們的決心。

約霍在節目上被主持人問到,中國現在不斷威脅入侵台灣,美國對台灣做的是否足夠。約霍認為,美國需與盟友合作對抗中國,而目前與韓國和日本關係足夠牢固,但對於台灣,美國做得還不夠。

約霍進一步批指中國不顧台灣人民意願,一心一意只想統一。「台灣從來不是中國的一部分,他們也不想。」

GOP Rep predicts other nations will join US in standing up to China
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eUzHpTmb-E0
[youtube]eUzHpTmb-E0[/youtube]

【政經看民視】台灣是一個國家!Ted Yoho 親派助理訪政經!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lx04h5yoHME
[youtube]Lx04h5yoHME[/youtube]

【觀察】美議員將提案授權總統動武阻大陸攻台 是真要幫台灣嗎?
https://www.hk01.com/%E8%A7%80%E5%AF%9F%...3%E5%97%8E
Reply
#3
陸軍媒公布台軍兵力部署圖 號稱「攻台方案必備」
https://hk.on.cc/hk/bkn/cnt/cnnews/20200...2_001.html
[Image: bkn-20200724212615062-0724_00952_001_01p...0724221606]

兩岸關係緊張之際,大陸知名軍事雜誌《艦船知識》周四(23日)在微博上載「台灣地區兵力部署概略圖」,標示台灣本島、離島的三軍兵力部署位置。有台灣軍事專家指概略圖頗為仔細,連各艦隊下轄戰艦、戰機聯隊種類部署都有標註,不知是雜誌社自行蒐集,還是從解放軍官方管道獲取。

《艦船知識》形容概略圖「洞悉台軍部署,制定攻台方案必備」,圖示台灣劃分為五個戰區,金門、馬祖及澎湖防衞部列入第一戰區;花蓮、台東列為第二戰區;第三戰區為宜蘭、苗栗、桃園、新竹、基隆、台北及新北;第四戰區包括台南、高雄及屏東;第五戰區則是台中、彰化、雲林、嘉義及南投。圖中綠色為陸軍基地,淺藍色是空軍基地,深藍色則是海軍基地,天弓及愛國者防空導彈部署地方亦有列出。

有台軍官員透露,由中科院研製的雄風二型反艦導彈在漢光演習中表現凸出,精準命中靶艦;軍方決定增產30枚同型導彈,並延長另外50枚的壽命,以阻嚇大陸軍事威脅。雄二導彈作戰範圍為20至150公里,增程型射程可達250公里。

美參議院通過國防授權法案 建議邀台參與環太平洋軍演
https://hk.on.cc/hk/bkn/cnt/cnnews/20200...2_001.html

台海及南海局勢驟然緊張,美國參議院周四(23日)以大比數通過2021財政年度國防授權法案,建議美軍需具備拒絕大陸迅速控制台灣,造成既成事實的能力,並建議邀請台灣參與環太平洋軍事演習(RIMPAC)。另一邊廂,解放軍周六(25日)起在南海門戶、廣東雷州半島海域一連8日展開實彈射擊演習。
參議院以86票對14票通過國防授權法案,列出美軍軍費預算為7405億美元(約5.77萬億港元)。法案指出,《台灣關係法》與6項保證是美台關係基礎,任何企圖以非和平方式決定台灣前途的舉動,均視為威脅西太平洋地區和平及穩定。美國應支持台灣發展現代化國防武力,包括對台軍售及國防工業合作,確保台灣維持不對稱戰略的力量。
法案建議,邀請台灣參與RIMPAC、美軍歐文堡國家訓練中心的聯合訓練,雙邊軍演及訓練;並根據《台灣旅行法》,增加美台高級軍事將領交流、擴大軍事醫療與人道災難救助合作等,美國國防部應派遣海軍醫療船安慰號(USNS Comfort)及仁慈號(USNS Mercy)停靠台灣,延續美台的抗疫合作。由於眾議院通過的國防授權法案有別於參議院版本,兩院將協商最終版本,並在兩院表決通過後,才能交白宮由總統簽署生效。
美國海軍陸戰隊司令伯格(David Berger)表示,將於2027年前在日本沖繩部署濱海作戰團,防止解放軍輕易突破第一島鏈。濱海作戰團是海軍陸戰隊改革後的新作戰部隊,會棄用多數加農炮及削減坦克在內的重型裝甲裝備,改為裝備導彈及無人機,強化反艦及防空能力。
解放軍95180部隊周四發出通知,指起在雷州半島以西港域展開實彈打靶,期間禁止海域內一切海上航行及漁業作業,船隻停泊港內禁止海。通知強調,打靶覆蓋範圍廣、彈藥威力大,擅自出海被誤炸誤傷的風險極大,希望駐地的民眾不要擅自出海。
對於美國國務卿蓬佩奧在前日演講提及台灣,台外交部事後表示感謝一事。大陸國台辦發言人指,台灣民進黨當局無論以任何方式、藉任合名義、通過任何手段謀獨,都不會得逞。

台軍劍翔無人機投入量產 可壓制陸雷達陣地
https://hk.on.cc/hk/bkn/cnt/cnnews/20200...2_001.html

台海局勢日趨緊張,台媒周六(25日)引述軍方官員證實,台軍目前正進行「劍翔」反輻射無人機的量產計劃,料首批總數達104架。報道指,該款配置反輻射導彈的無人機,可有效克制、干擾甚至摧毀中國大陸沿海雷達站運作,並且壓制大陸部署S400防空導彈。

據報道,大陸近年來在沿海構建的雷達站及防空網絡愈來愈緊密,特別從俄羅斯採購S400防空導彈後,只要部署在福建沿海,配合戰機及戰術導彈,足以讓台灣空軍從起飛、升空、滯空3個階段均受到解放軍嚴密監控及無間斷打擊,台軍要突破現狀,必須依靠反輻射導彈或無人機,「撕開」解放軍的雷達網絡。

報道引述軍方官員指,劍翔無人機系統的量產計劃及經費,目前被列入國防部年度機密預算之內,因為劍翔無人機系統的性能與部署均涉及機密,如未來降低或解除機密等級,則會改為公開預算。該官員續指,劍翔無人機系統是台軍目前唯一核定進行量產的攻擊型無人機系統,另一款「騰雲」無人機,目前仍處於各項驗證,未來可望由偵察為主的功能,轉換為攻守一體的大型無人機,也具備配掛導彈能力,預計明年將進行相關的作戰測評。

台灣的中科院在2019年台北國際航太暨國防工業展中,曾公開展示劍翔無人機系統,包括無人機及發射車。一輛發射車可裝載12架無人機。中科院航空所長齊立平當時曾表示,劍翔無人機已具備作戰能力,可用於單機攻擊或「群攻」,並確定投入量產,首批總數為104架。

牛津市議會42票通過 與台灣締結姊妹城市
https://hk.on.cc/hk/bkn/cnt/aeanews/2020...2_001.html

英國周一(20日)宣布無限期暫停與香港的引渡逃犯協議後,英國牛津市議會同日晚上以42票同意、1票反對、2票棄權通過與台灣締結姊妹市。議案強調,姊妹市關係與英國官方承認中國立場無關,將與台民間開展交流。

該議案由自民黨籍議員於本月8日提出,同黨議員亦聯署支持,市議會於當晚以視像會議方式討論。提案的議員表示,英國在東亞地區尚無類似連結,也沒有城市與台灣締結姊妹市;而台目前身處外交黑洞,官員無法參與世衞,但在防疫方面可讓牛津市借鏡的地方。

提案顯示,台灣在追求民主和經濟發展方面,建立具競爭性的民主制度,自1950年代起,GDP增長超過30倍,,是同期成長最快速的全球5大經濟體之一。在疫情方面,台僅有7宗死亡病例,又在4月對英國在內的歐洲國家捐贈700萬個口罩,協助抗疫,市議會遂作出上述決定。
Reply
#4
美軍最高將領:美國有能力阻擋中國解放軍侵奪台灣
https://www.hk01.com/%E5%8D%B3%E6%99%82%...0%E7%81%A3

美國軍隊參謀長聯席會議主席米利(Mark Milley)6月10日稱,若中國軍事侵略台灣且華府做出相應政治決定,美軍將有能力捍衛台灣。

米利當天在聽證會被問及倘中共解放軍入侵以控制台灣,美軍能否捍衛台灣。他回答:「若依據《台灣關係法》做出政治決定,我可以向你保證我們擁有這樣的能力。」

他還說:「若要軍事入侵台灣,要橫越海峽,而台灣海峽備有相當兵力;要去奪取像台灣這樣大小的島,有這樣的軍力和人口,那是格外複雜和困難的行動……那樣做非常困難。」


拜登稱與中方領導人洽台議題 雙方同意遵守「台灣協議」
https://hk.on.cc/hk/bkn/cnt/cnnews/20211...2_001.html

中國大陸近日派出破紀錄解放軍軍機飛近台灣空域,美國總統拜登周二(5日)首度開腔回應,表示他曾與中國領導人談及台灣議題,兩人均同意遵守「台灣協議」。

外媒報道,拜登在白宮回答記者提問時形容,兩人的討論共識清楚明確,所以他不認為中國領導人會做出任何逾越協議的行動。

報道估計,拜登所指的「台灣協議」極可能是《台灣關係法》,也可能是北京當年為了推動美國建交而提出的和平解決台海兩岸分歧的承諾。

對於「台灣協議」,台灣的國防部長邱國正周三(6日)表示不了解相關談話內容,但認為上述政治考量屬另一層次,台軍目前最好的應對方法就是強化軍備。不過他強調,台軍絕對遵守不優先攻擊的承諾。邱國正又形容,現時兩岸形勢是他從軍40年來最嚴峻,估計解放軍到2025年將具全面攻台能力。

台灣的總統府發言人張惇涵周三回應,當局已立即就言論聯繫美國方面,並獲告知華府對台政策不變、美國將持續依據《台灣關係法》及「六項保證」,維持對台灣堅若磐石的承諾。

台周邊軍事活動加劇 美私下接觸北京
https://hk.on.cc/hk/bkn/cnt/cnnews/20211...2_001.html

中國大陸周一(4日)向台灣空域派出軍機56架次,再創單日新高。對此,美國白宮、國務院及國防部分別表態,強調對台承諾,並透露美方曾公開及私底下向陸方表明立場。

美國白宮發言人普薩基當地周一在例行記者會上被問,美政府如何看待大陸軍機頻繁飛赴台空域。她回應稱,美方對大陸的軍事挑釁行為持續關注和憂慮,此舉增加誤判形勢的風險,也削弱區域的和平穩定。她敦促北京當局停止對台灣在軍事、外交和經濟上的施壓及脅迫,強調台海的和平穩定對美方有長久的利益,因此美方將持續協助台灣維持足夠的自我防衞能力。

對於大陸在美方表達關切後數小時再派出50多架次軍機赴台,顯然無視美方,有記者追問美方下一步將怎樣做時,普薩基稱,美方有私底下與大陸接觸,透過外交渠道明確傳遞訊息,認為這是適當的途徑。當被追問是哪位美國官員與大陸私下接觸時,她回覆是高層級官員,但詳情記者可向國務院和國防部了解。

美國國務院發言人普萊斯同日再次回應大陸在台灣周邊軍事活動時,強調不願對陸方動機多加揣測,但「強烈敦促」北京切勿在軍事、外交和經濟上施壓與脅迫台灣。而在前一晚,美國國防部亦發聲明表示,大陸在台灣附近加強軍事活動破壞穩定,並提升誤判形勢的風險,重申對台灣的承諾堅如磐石,堅決維護台海和區域的和平穩定。

3天內近百架大陸軍機擾台 台空軍發F-16掛彈升空影片:絕不妥協
https://www.hk01.com/%E5%8F%B0%E7%81%A3%...5%E5%8D%94

拜登稱與中方領導人洽台議題 雙方同意遵守「台灣協議」
https://hk.on.cc/hk/bkn/cnt/cnnews/20211...2_001.html

中國大陸近日派出破紀錄解放軍軍機飛近台灣空域,美國總統拜登周二(5日)首度開腔回應,表示他曾與中國領導人談及台灣議題,兩人均同意遵守「台灣協議」。

外媒報道,拜登在白宮回答記者提問時形容,兩人的討論共識清楚明確,所以他不認為中國領導人會做出任何逾越協議的行動。

報道估計,拜登所指的「台灣協議」極可能是《台灣關係法》,也可能是北京當年為了推動美國建交而提出的和平解決台海兩岸分歧的承諾。

對於「台灣協議」,台灣的國防部長邱國正周三(6日)表示不了解相關談話內容,但認為上述政治考量屬另一層次,台軍目前最好的應對方法就是強化軍備。不過他強調,台軍絕對遵守不優先攻擊的承諾。邱國正又形容,現時兩岸形勢是他從軍40年來最嚴峻,估計解放軍到2025年將具全面攻台能力。

台灣的總統府發言人張惇涵周三回應,當局已立即就言論聯繫美國方面,並獲告知華府對台政策不變、美國將持續依據《台灣關係法》及「六項保證」,維持對台灣堅若磐石的承諾。

美海軍本周公布戰略指南 逼陸棄攻台
https://hk.on.cc/hk/bkn/cnt/intnews/2021...2_001.html

美國新任海軍部長托羅(Carlos Del Toro)周二(5日)晚發表演說時,透露海軍本周將發布國家戰略指南文件,就美國海軍和海軍陸戰隊如何保持全球海上優勢、加強戰略夥伴關係及成功遏制中國威脅提出具體計劃。

在美國海軍學院向學員發表的演說中,托羅指軍方目的並非跟中國大陸開戰,沒人希望陷入衝突,但他們有責任阻止大陸拿下台灣,因此作出必要的投資,以聚焦更多在大陸及其他威脅。他認為,大陸對美國以至其盟友和夥伴都構成威脅,更威脅到二戰後維護世界和平的國際規範。

被問及如何應對大陸對台灣的威脅問題時,托羅指美國海軍要建立與澳洲、印度、菲律賓、印尼等很多受到大陸威脅的印太地區國家的聯盟和合作夥伴關係,並強調為台灣提供自衞所需的武器和技術極為重要。

托羅表示,結成全球性的聯盟和夥伴關係,將是即將發布的戰略文件一個重要組成部分,優先事項是考慮如何利用有限的國防預算應對大陸。他提到,海軍將大力投資在造船廠、維修站等設施,並確保這些平台及武器能繼續戰鬥;又指人工智能、網絡安全、高超音速武器等將定義美方對華的優勢。他希望海軍的載人艦隊達到355艘的目標。

美卿籲中國大陸 停止對台挑釁免誤判
https://hk.on.cc/hk/bkn/cnt/intnews/2021...2_001.html

中國大陸近日密集向台灣空域派出軍機,單日數字接連創新高,兩岸軍事形勢持續緊張。到訪法國巴黎的美國國務卿布林肯周三(6日)接受美國媒體訪問時,形容陸方最近在台灣周邊採取的行動「挑釁且可能破壞穩定」,並敦促北京領導階層停止這類行徑以免誤判。有美國國會委員會主席表示,關注到台灣面對來自大陸的挑戰,將透過帶領立法,加強台灣安全和美台雙邊夥伴關係。

布林肯在專訪中表示:「我們見到的中國那些行為是挑釁且可能破壞穩定。我們希望這類行為將會停止,因為總是有可能會誤判、溝通不良,而那很危險。」他續指:「沒有任何人藉由武力單方面改變現狀,是至關重要的。我們必須見到中國停止這些行為。」對於中美兩國元首能否在未來幾周或幾個月面對面會晤,布林肯回應道:「我們拭目以待。」

另外,美國參議院外交關係委員會主席、民主黨議員梅嫩德斯及軍事委員會主席、共和黨議員殷荷菲,於周三一同向台灣的蔡英文總統發信稱,有鑑於大陸派軍機進入台灣空域的頻率增加,捍衞台灣人民與政府所體現的民主價值和自由市場原則,較以往任何時刻更重要。二人強調,美國國會將堅守履行「台灣關係法」和「六項保證」的承諾,確保台灣繼續作為美國在印太區域最重要夥伴之一。

駐日美軍練新戰術 瀕海火力分散制華
https://hk.on.cc/hk/bkn/cnt/intnews/2021...2_001.html

美國海軍陸戰隊早前在日本舉行針對中國的瀕海作戰演練,與航空母艦及神盾驅逐艦分享攻擊目標數據,同時快速調動高機動火箭系統,透過分散式部署火力支援海軍作戰,確保日後戰時面對中國導彈威脅,仍然可以維持一定優勢。

演習上月27日至31日在日本沖繩縣舉行,海軍陸戰隊第3遠征軍及海軍第7艦隊參與。海軍陸戰隊密切監測模擬敵軍活動期間,把高機動火箭系統裝載至海軍遠征快速運輸船,當抵達目的地後部署在隱藏地點,準備隨時在遠征前進基地發炮位置開火;海軍陸戰隊同時與海軍航空母艦卡爾文森號、神盾驅逐艦霍華德號及F/A18戰機等分享攻擊目標數據,有助對海上及地面目標發動聯合攻擊。

另一邊廂,近200名海軍陸戰隊隊員乘坐MV22B魚鷹運輸機展開長程滲透,他們從沖繩縣飛往965公里外的富士營,抵達後模擬與敵軍交戰並擊敗對方,成功奪取重要海上據點,建立額外的遠征前進基地。演習展示海軍陸戰隊如何與聯合部隊整合,執行反登陸行動及反艦作戰任務,表現美方維護地區安全的決心。

日本傳媒周二(5日)報道,美國海軍陸戰隊針對中國導彈威脅,早前提出遠征前進基地作戰概念,意思把小規模的部隊分散式部署到區內島嶼,旨在確保攻擊據點並支援海軍行動,今次演習旨在提升部隊對這個作戰概念的熟練程度。

美遠征移動基地艦 常駐西太平洋制華
https://hk.on.cc/hk/bkn/cnt/intnews/2021...2_001.html

[Image: bkn-20211007193925251-1007_00992_001_01p...1007194352]

美國海軍加強在印太地區的部署應對中國,最新服役的遠征移動基地艦米格爾‧基思號(USS Miguel Keith)周三(6日)抵達日本沖繩縣。該艦負責支援瀕海作戰及特種作戰行動,今後永久部署塞班島,日後或在中國沿海水域巡航。

米格爾‧基思號今年5月在加州服役後橫越太平洋,周三停靠美方在沖繩縣的白灘海軍基地。它長239米及闊50米,排水量9萬噸,飛行甲板設有4個升降位置。遠征移動基地艦最大特點是提供艦對岸後勤運輸、裝備及人員集結,指揮與控制等功能;除了瀕海作戰及特種作戰行動,它可以支援直升機空中掃雷任務。

米格爾‧基思號是美軍第3艘遠征移動基地艦,姊妹艦是派駐中東的劉易斯‧普勒號及部署希臘的赫謝爾‧伍迪‧威廉斯號。遠征移動基地艦由半潛船改裝,配備雙層甲板,上層用作飛行甲板,下層由氣墊船、快艇及登陸艇使用,意味它具備兩棲作戰能力;這款軍艦部署南海後,美軍在區內擁有海上浮動據點。

[ 本帖最後由 消失的老公 於 2021-10-7 08:14 編輯 ]
Reply
#5
據報美軍秘密駐台灣訓練軍隊至少一年 北京批損害中美關係
https://news.tvb.com/world/615fccde34b03...C%E4%BF%82

美國傳媒報道,美軍特種部隊和陸戰隊秘密在台灣訓練軍隊至少一年,應對大陸軍事威脅。美國國防部不評論報道,但強調美國對台灣的支持,跟目前大陸構成的威脅一致。在北京,外交部多次批評美方加強與台灣軍事聯繫,損害中美關係,破壞地區和平穩定。

美國《華爾街日報》引述匿名美國官員報道,美軍特種作戰及支援部隊約20多名成員在台灣訓練當地陸軍小型分隊,美軍陸戰隊則與台灣的海軍從事小艇訓練。

報道引述該官員稱,美軍採取輪調模式,在台灣運作了至少一年,意味美軍成員是在不同時間到台灣提供訓練。

報道形容,大陸近期加強對台灣軍事威嚇,美軍到台灣提供訓練的做法,反映美國國防部內部關注台灣戰術能力。

路透社其後亦引述兩名知情人士報道,指有小量美軍特種部隊一直以臨時輪調形式到台灣,為台灣軍隊提供訓練;又暗示有關行動早於美國總統拜登年初上任前已進行。

在台灣,國防部不評論有關報道,只稱各項軍事交流均依年度計劃進行。國防部副部長柏鴻輝形容台海情況嚴峻,強調在國際上若有任何合作,都會表示歡迎。

美國國防部發言人蘇普萊亦稱,不評論有關報道,但稱大陸擴大對台灣與其他盟友及夥伴的脅迫與施壓,包括增加在台灣、東海與南海附近的軍事行動,破壞穩定並增加誤判風險,強調美國對台灣的支持,以及美台防務關係,跟台灣目前面對大陸的威脅一致。

美國維持堅實對台支持,符合「一中」政策的長期承諾;又重申美國將繼續支持在符合兩岸人民意願與最佳利益的情況下,和平解決兩岸議題。

在北京,外交部多次重申,台灣是中國的台灣,美方在對台售武、加強美台軍事聯繫等方面,消極動作不斷,損害中美關係,破壞地區和平穩定,中方堅決反對,並採取必要應對措施。

據報美軍在台訓練軍隊逾一年 北京促美方停止美台軍事聯繫
https://news.tvb.com/world/61600b64335d1...F%E7%B9%AB

美國傳媒報道,美軍特種部隊和陸戰隊秘密在台灣訓練軍隊至少一年,應對大陸軍事威脅,美國國防部及台灣軍方均不評論報道。在北京,外交部促請美方停止美台軍事聯繫,以免嚴重損害中美關係和台海和平穩定。

美國《華爾街日報》引述匿名美國官員報道,美軍特種作戰及支援部隊約20多名成員,在台灣訓練當地陸軍小型分隊,美軍陸戰隊則與台灣的海軍從事小艇訓練。

報道引述該官員稱,美軍採取輪調模式在台灣運作了至少一年,意味美軍成員是在不同時間到台灣提供訓練。報道形容,大陸近期加強對台灣軍事威嚇,美軍到台灣提供訓練的做法,反映美國國防部內部關注台灣戰術能力。

路透社其後亦引述兩名知情人士報道,指有小量美軍特種部隊一直以臨時輪調形式到台灣,為台灣軍隊提供訓練;又暗示有關行動早於美國總統拜登年初上任前已進行。

在台灣,國防部不評論有關報道,只稱各項軍事交流均依年度計劃進行。美國國防部發言人蘇普萊亦稱不評論有關報道,但強調美國對台灣的支持以及美台防務關係,跟台灣目前面對大陸的威脅一致,美國維持堅實對台支持符合「一個中國」政策的長期承諾;又重申美國將繼續支持在符合兩岸人民意願與最佳利益的情況下,和平解決兩岸議題。

在北京,外交部促請美方停止美台軍事聯繫,強調「一中」政策是中美關係的政治支柱。

外交部發言人趙立堅表示︰「美國應充分認清涉台問題的高度敏感性和有關問題的嚴重危害性,恪守『一個中國』原則和中美三個聯合公報規定,停止售台武裝和美台軍事聯繫,以免嚴重損害中美關係和台海和平穩定。」

他又稱,中方會採取一切必要措施,捍衛主權領土完整。
Reply
#6
拜登:倘中國攻台 美國將協防 白宮其後稱對台政策沒變
https://www.hk01.com/%E5%8D%B3%E6%99%82%...m=referral

美國總統拜登(Joe Biden)10月21日稱美國將協防台灣,並稱美國有協防台灣的承諾。白宮其後表示,美對台政策沒變。

他在被記者問道「如果中國攻擊,美國是否將保衛台灣」的問題時表示,如果中國方面可能對台灣進行「軍事侵略」,美國準備「保衛台灣」。

拜登在美國有線新聞網絡(CNN)與選民交流時表示:「是的,我們這樣的承諾。」不過白宮其後稱,他的言論並不是宣布美國政策有什麼轉變,「我們的政策沒有改變。」

民主黨和共和黨議員當中,都有聲音要求拜登政府採取對台「戰略清晰」,放棄過去40多年的「戰略模糊」(strategic ambiguity)政策。

美台防禦關係依《台灣關係法》及六項保證規範,美國在法理和「義務」上須協助台灣自衛,惟華府一直採取「戰略模糊」政策,從未清楚表明會否在中國大陸攻擊台灣時保衛台灣。

此外拜登稱,美國擁有全球最強大的武裝力量,呼籲國民不要擔憂任何其他大國會超過美國,其中包括俄羅斯和中國。

拜登說,「中國、俄羅斯和整個剩餘世界都明白美國有世界史上最強大的武裝力量,不要擔心他們(其他國家)會超過我們。人們需擔心的是,他們會否從事什麼活動,令他們處於犯下嚴重錯誤的處境。」


拜登:如果中國大陸動武 美國會保衛台灣
https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/news/%E6%8B...31189.html

面對要美國政府澄清對台立場的呼聲,該國總統喬·拜登發表了頗為強烈的一些言論。他說,美國致力於在大陸動武的情況下保衛台灣。

拜登周四在參加CNN活動時被問到他是否能承諾保護台灣,並給出了肯定的答案。「我不想與中國冷戰——我只是想讓中國明白,我們不會退後,我們不會改變任何觀點,」拜登在巴爾的摩告訴主持人Anderson Cooper。

當被問及如果中國大陸試圖攻打台灣,他是否會保衛台灣時,他回應說:「是的,我們有這樣做的承諾。」

一位白宮發言人隨後表示,拜登並未宣布改變美國對台政策。該發言人表示,美國將繼續依據《與台灣關係法》履行承諾,支持台灣的自衛,反對單方面改變現狀。

「沒人想看到海峽兩岸問題引發衝突,拜登總統當然不想看到這樣,而且沒理由變成這樣,」美國國防部長奧斯丁周五在布魯塞爾舉行的北約國防部長會議結束後對記者們表示。

中國外交部發言人汪文斌周五在例行新聞發布會上並未就此嚴詞責備,只是敦促美方在台灣問題上「謹言慎行」,恪守「一個中國」原則和中美三個聯合公報的規定。在拜登和中國國家主席習近平準備舉行首個視頻峰會之際,北京方面減少了對華盛頓的公開批評。據路透社周四引述知情人士的消息報導,美國準備於下個月晚些時候舉行兩人的會晤。

在習近平加大對台灣政府的外交和軍事施壓之際,要拜登政府澄清美國保衛台灣承諾的呼聲日益高漲。中國主張台灣是中國領土,並保留武力統一的權利。

雖然美國在四十多年前承認中華人民共和國政府是「中國的唯一合法政府」,但它從未明確表示在台灣主權問題上的立場,也未明確表示過是否會使用武力保衛台灣——一項有時被描述為「戰略性模棱兩可」的政策。美國與台灣維持了非正式關係,並依據《與台灣關係法》向台灣出售武器。拜登當年作為參議員向該法案投了支持票。

美國在1979年用《與台灣關係法》取代了其與台灣的《共同防禦條約》,與後者不同的是,前者並未規定美國在台灣遇襲時有出手干預的義務。中國已一再警告稱,恢復這樣一種安防關係違反曾為中美建交掃清道路的「一個中國」原則。

面對一些人要求加強對台灣的支持,一些人則擔心與有核武器的對手發生軍事衝突求,拜登政府難以在兩者之間找到平衡。在拜登8月份把美國對台灣的安全承諾跟其與日本和南韓等國的正式聯盟劃上等號之後,美國政府已澄清稱其立場未變。

本月早些時候,拜登說他和習近平已承諾「遵守台灣約定」,但是並不存在這樣一個約定。他似乎指的是一系列美中公報,這些公報為兩國過去四十年的外交關係奠定了基礎。

本月早些時候,拜登說他和習近平已承諾「遵守台灣協議」,儘管並不存在這個名字的協議。他似乎指的是為兩國40年前建交奠定了基礎的一系列中美聯合公報。

在2001年,時任美國總統小布什曾作出類似的保護台灣承諾,稱他將下令不計代價幫助台灣自衛。當時是參議員的拜登在《華盛頓郵報》上撰文批評這些言論,說這是「模棱兩可的戰略模棱兩可」。

原文標題Biden Says U.S. Would Defend Taiwan From Attack by China (4)

[ 本帖最後由 失踪的老公 於 2021-10-22 14:31 編輯 ]
Reply
#7
美國共和黨參議員提出《台灣威懾法》 加強台灣防禦能力
https://www.hk01.com/%E5%8D%B3%E6%99%82%...D%E5%8A%9B

美國共和黨籍參議員11月4日提出一項法案,尋求向台灣每年提供資金與其他援助,總值20億美元,以此提升台灣的防禦能力。

名為《台灣威懾法》(Taiwan Deterrence Act)的法字,將授權美國每年從讓美國以外的地區購買美國生產的武器和國防設備的融資項目中,向台灣提供這筆資金,直到2032年。

這筆錢也附帶條件,包括台灣承諾他們的支出與美國的匹配。

法案將修改管理對外軍售的《武器出口控制法》,使美國公司更容易向台灣出售武器,並要求就台灣推進針對中國大陸的防禦戰略事宜,進行年度評估。

法案也將改善美台軍事交流,並擴大台灣軍事人員在美國的專業軍事教育和技術培訓機會。

美國海軍部長:北京接收台灣「威脅美經濟安全」
美國最高將領米利:美軍絕對有能力保衛台灣
美國防部:北京目標2027年有能力迫使台灣談判
美軍最高將領:中國大陸短期內不太可能武力攻佔台灣
Reply
#8
「台灣是獨立的,自己做決定」:拜登在與習近平會晤後如是說
https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/news/%E6%8B...47265.html

美國總統拜登在與中國國家主席習近平會晤後再次表態支持台灣當局,稱該島「自己的決定自己做」。

「我們非常明確地表示我們支持《台灣法》,僅此而已,」 拜登周二在赴新罕布什爾州途中對記者說。他指美國1979年通過的《台灣關係法》。

它是獨立的。它自己做決定,」 他還說。

一個峰會、各自表述:習拜會中美聲明對比

白宮發布的紀要顯示,拜登在峰會上對習近平強調,美國仍然致力於《台灣關係法》、三個聯合公報和六項保證指導下的 「一個中國」政策。「兩位領導人在台灣問題上談了很長時間,」 他的國家安全顧問沙利文周二在布魯金斯學會的一次活動上說,「總統提醒習近平,他當參議員的時候曾投票支持《台灣關係法》。」

「兩位領導人在台灣問題上花費了大量時間,」 沙利文說。

《台灣關係法》是規範美台關係的指引性文件,確立了美國將通過出售武器和遏制大陸武力攻台的企圖,來支持台灣自我防衛。

沙利文是參加該次長達三個半小時視頻峰會的少數官員之一。美國官員表示,討論是坦誠和尊重的。

「這是一次不錯的會晤,」 拜登說,「我們做了很多跟進,我們成立了四個小組,我們將在一系列問題上把大家召集起來。我會在未來兩周向你們報告更多消息。」

拜登和習近平還討論了兩國如何「共同努力確保全球能源供應和價格波動不會危及全球經濟復甦,」 沙利文說,「兩位元首要求他們的團隊在這個問題上迅速開展協調。」

拜登上月對CNN表示,如果大陸單方面改變台海現狀,美國將防衛台灣,而白宮後來發布的澄清聲明只是重申了美國的長期政策。

中方發布的聲明稱,拜登不支持台獨。習近平警告說,美方一些人有意搞「以台制華」。這一趨勢十分危險,是在玩火,而玩火者必自焚。

台灣外交部指責北京「故意」歪曲拜登的言論。

原文標題Biden Says After Xi Summit That Taiwan ‘Makes Its Own Decisions’


Biden Says After Xi Summit That Taiwan ‘Makes Its Own Decisions’
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...ing-summit

President Joe Biden said that Taiwan “makes its own decisions,” backing the island’s leaders anew after a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping intended to stabilize the tense relationship between the world’s two largest economies.

“We made very clear we support the Taiwan Act, and that’s it,” Biden told reporters Tuesday during a trip to New Hampshire, referring to the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act.

It’s independent. It makes its own decisions,” he added.

Even so, Biden said during the summit that the U.S. remains committed to its “One China” policy, according to a White House statement. Biden reminded Xi during the meeting that he voted as a senator to support Taiwan’s self-defense when the two discussed the island, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said Tuesday.

“The two leaders spent a good amount of time on the question of Taiwan,” Sullivan said at a Brookings Institution event on Tuesday.

The act established that the U.S. will support Taiwan’s self-defense with weapons sales and discourage any attempt by China to retake the island by force.

Sullivan was one of the few officials who participated in the summit, which lasted 3 1/2 hours. U.S. officials said the discussion was candid and respectful.

“It was a good meeting,” Biden said. “We’ve got a lot of follow-up on, we set up four groups, we’re going to get our folks together on a whole range of issues. I’ll have more to report to you in the next two weeks.”

As anticipated, the conversation between Biden and Xi was mostly aimed at setting the rules of engagement between the world’s two largest economies, in an effort to avoid unintended military conflict or economic damage. China and the U.S. have been at odds over Taiwan, the South China Sea, trade and human rights, among other issues.

The leaders also discussed how their countries “can work together to ensure global energy supply and price volatility do not imperil the global economic recovery,” Sullivan said. “The two presidents tasked their teams to coordinate on this issue expeditiously.”
Reply
#9
倘若中國武統台灣?耶倫說美國將動用全部制裁工具
https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/news/%E5%80...20033.html

【彭博】-- 美國財政部長耶倫表示,如果北京對台灣動武,拜登政府會準備好使用所有制裁工具懲罰中國。

「我相信我們已經顯示,我們能夠」對侵略性的國家造成巨大痛苦,對俄羅斯的制裁已經證明了這一點,耶倫周三在眾議院金融服務委員會作證詞時對議員們說,「我認為你們不應該懷疑我們面臨其他情況時做同樣事情的能力和決心。」

耶倫在回答來自北卡羅來納州的共和黨眾議員Patrick McHenry提問時做了上述表示。後者問她財政部是否會像俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭後對待莫斯科那樣願意對中國實施制裁。

原文標題
Yellen Says U.S. Would Use Sanctions If China Invaded Taiwan

Yellen Says U.S. Would Use Sanctions If China Invaded Taiwan
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...ded-taiwan
Treasury secretary comments during congressional hearing
‘You should not doubt’ U.S. resolve to use its tools

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the Biden administration would be prepared to use all its sanctions tools against China if Beijing moved aggressively toward Taiwan.

“I believe we’ve shown we can” impose significant pain on aggressive countries, as evidenced by sanctions against Russia, Yellen told lawmakers Wednesday as she testified before the House Financial Services Committee. “I think you should not doubt our ability and resolve to do the same in other situations.”

Yellen was responding to questions from Republican Representative Patrick McHenry of North Carolina over whether the Treasury would be as willing to use sanctions against China as it has against Russia following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.

Read more: Yellen to Warn War Threatens ‘Enormous Economic Repercussions’

Russia’s attack on Ukraine has undermined confidence that world powers would be able to prevent a crisis from similarly erupting over Taiwan, a democratically governed island of more than 23 million people and key global source of semiconductors. China has long claimed Taiwan as a renegade province and threatened to invade to prevent its independence.

Last month, China warned the U.S. against trying to build what it called a Pacific version of NATO, while declaring that security disputes over Taiwan and Ukraine were “not comparable at all.”

US Treasury Secretary Yellen: US open to all tools if China invaded Taiwan
https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-treasur...2204061440

The United States is open to all tools if China invades Taiwan, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Wednesday, reported Bloomberg. The US is monitoring attempts to use crypto to evade sanctions, she added, referring to sanctions on Russia.

A senior Biden administration official just announced that the US is "dramatically escalating" the financial shock on Russia by cutting off the country's largest banks. The US is to impose full blocking sanctions on Russia's Sberbank and Alfa Bank, the official added, while US President Joe Biden is also set to sign a new executive order banning all new investment in Russia.

Ukraine war: US spells out sanctions on Russia, heaping more pressure on China to comply
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-econo...aping-more

Among the various restrictions, if a Russia-bound item was made using American tools or equipment, it could be covered by Washington’s sanctions

But while Chinese firms may try to avoid running afoul of US sanctions, overall China-Russia trade should remain strong because most products will not be affected

Here’s What Could Happen If China Invaded Taiwan (Repeat)
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/could-hap...33836.html

[Image: 8c3a9db37455259b872c89bc9190ba4b]

(Bloomberg) — (This story was originally published in Oct. 2020. It’s being republished to accompany our Big Take on the risks of attacking Taiwan.)

Xi Jinping’s Chinese Communist Party has threatened to invade Taiwan for more than seven decades. Now fears are growing among analysts, officials and investors that it might actually follow through over the next few years, potentially triggering a war with the U.S.

In September, People’s Liberation Army aircraft repeatedly breached the median line in the Taiwan Strait, eliminating a de facto buffer zone that has kept peace for decades. The party-run Global Times newspaper has given a picture of what could come, urging China’s air force to patrol the skies over Taiwan and “achieve reunification through military means” if it fires any shots. Taiwan announced it would only shoot if attacked.

Despite the saber rattling, China and Taiwan have many reasons to avoid a war that could kill tens of thousands, devastate their economies and potentially lead to a nuclear conflict with the U.S. and its allies. The overwhelming consensus remains that Beijing will continue efforts to control Taiwan through military threats, diplomatic isolation and economic incentives. Equities in Taiwan have recently hit record highs.

But several forces may push them toward action: President Xi Jinping’s desire to cement his legacy by gaining “lost” territory, falling support among Taiwan’s public for any union with China, the rise of pro-independence forces in Taipei and the U.S.’s increasingly hostile relationship with Beijing on everything from Hong Kong to the coronavirus to cutting-edge technology.

“I am increasingly concerned that a major crisis is coming,” said Ian Easton, senior director at the Project 2049 Institute who wrote “The Chinese Invasion Threat: Taiwan’s Defense and American Strategy in Asia.” “It is possible to envision this ending in an all-out invasion attempt and superpower war. The next five to 10 years are going to be dangerous ones. This flash point is fundamentally unstable.”

Taiwan will be among the most pressing security issues facing whoever wins the U.S. election on Nov. 3. While Taipei has enjoyed a resurgence of bipartisan support in Washington and the Trump administration has made unprecedented overtures, President Donald Trump himself has expressed skepticism about Taiwan’s strategic value. Democratic nominee Joe Biden has previously said Congress should decide whether the U.S. should defend Taiwan in any attack.

Analysts such as Easton have gamed out scenarios of a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan for years, based on military exercises, arms purchases and strategy documents from the major players. Most of them foresee China going for a quick knockout, in which the PLA overwhelms the main island before the U.S. could help out.

On paper, the military balance heavily favors Beijing. China spends about 25 times more on its military than Taiwan, according to estimates from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, and has a clear conventional edge on everything from missiles and fighter jets to warships and troop levels — not to mention its nuclear arsenal.

Beijing’s optimistic version of events goes something like this: Prior to an invasion, cyber and electronic warfare units would target Taiwan’s financial system and key infrastructure, as well as U.S. satellites to reduce notice of impending ballistic missiles. Chinese vessels could also harass ships around Taiwan, restricting vital supplies of fuel and food.

Airstrikes would quickly aim to kill Taiwan’s top political and military leaders, while also immobilizing local defenses. The Chinese military has described some drills as “decapitation” exercises, and satellite imagery shows its training grounds include full-scale replicas of targets such as the Presidential Office Building.

An invasion would follow, with PLA warships and submarines traversing some 130 kilometers (80 miles) across the Taiwan Strait. Outlying islands such as Kinmen and Pratas could be quickly subsumed before a fight for the Penghu archipelago, which sits just 50 kilometers from Taiwan and is home to bases for all three branches of its military. A PLA win here would provide it with a valuable staging point for a broader attack.

As Chinese ships speed across the strait, thousands of paratroopers would appear above Taiwan’s coastlines, looking to penetrate defenses, capture strategic buildings and establish beachheads through which the PLA could bring in tens of thousands of soldiers who would secure a decisive victory.

In reality, any invasion is likely to be much riskier. Taiwan has prepared for one for decades, even if lately it has struggled to match China’s growing military advantage.

Taiwan’s main island has natural defenses: Surrounded by rough seas with unpredictable weather, its rugged coastline offers few places with a wide beach suitable for a large ship that could bring in enough troops to subdue its 24 million people. The mountainous terrain is riddled with tunnels designed to keep key leaders alive, and could provide cover for insurgents if China established control.

Taiwan in 2018 unveiled a plan to boost asymmetric capabilities like mobile missile systems that could avoid detection, making it unlikely Beijing could quickly destroy all of its defensive weaponry. With thousands of surface-to-air missiles and anti-aircraft guns, Taiwan could inflict heavy losses on the Chinese invasion force before it reached the main island.

Taiwan’s military has fortified defenses around key landing points and regularly conducts drills to repel Chinese forces arriving by sea and from the air. In July outside of the western port of Taichung, Apache helicopters, F-16s and Taiwan’s own domestically developed fighter jets sent plumes of seawater into the sky as they fired offshore while M60 tanks, artillery guns and missile batteries pummeled targets on the beach.

Chinese troops who make it ashore would face roughly 175,000 full-time soldiers and more than 1 million reservists ready to resist an occupation. Taiwan this week announced it would set up a defense mobilization agency to ensure they were better prepared for combat, the Taipei Times reported. Other options for Beijing, such as an indiscriminate bombing campaign that kills hundreds of thousands of civilians, would hurt the Communist Party’s ultimate goal of showcasing Taiwan as a prosperous territory with loyal Chinese citizens, Michael Beckley, who’s advised the Pentagon and U.S. intelligence communities, wrote in a 2017 paper.

“The PLA clearly would have its hands full just dealing with Taiwan’s defenders,” Beckley wrote. “Consequently, the United States would only need to tip the scales of the battle to foil a Chinese invasion.”

The potential involvement of the U.S. is a key wild card when assessing an invasion scenario. American naval power has long deterred China from any attack, even though the U.S. scrapped its mutual defense treaty with Taiwan in 1979 as a condition for establishing diplomatic ties with Beijing. The Taiwan Relations Act authorizes American weapons sales to “maintain a sufficient self-defense capability.”

Failing to intervene could hurt U.S. prestige on scale similar to the U.K.’s failed bid to regain control of the Suez Canal in 1956, Ray Dalio, the billionaire founder of Bridgewater Associates, wrote on Sept. 25. That crisis accelerated the disintegration of the British Empire and signaled the pound’s decline as a reserve currency in favor of the dollar, Dalio said.

“The more of a show the U.S. makes of defending Taiwan the greater the humiliation of a lost war,” he said. “That is concerning because the United States has been making quite a show of defending Taiwan while destiny appears to be bringing that closer to a reality.”

China’s Anti-Secession Law is vague on what would actually trigger an armed conflict. Its state-run media have warned that any U.S. military deployment to Taiwan would trigger a war — one of several apparent red lines, along with a move for Taipei’s government to declare legal independence. State broadcaster CCTV recently warned “the first battle would be the last battle.”

Since the Communist Party’s legitimacy is based in part on a pledge to “unify” China, its hold on the country’s 1.4 billion people could weaken if it allowed Taiwan to become an independent country. And while any invasion even of outlying islands carries the risks of economic sanctions or a destabilizing conflict, threats issued in state-run media allow Beijing to appeal to a domestic audience and deter Taiwan at the same time.

The PLA Air Force released a video in September showing H-6 bombers making a simulated strike on a runway that looked like one at Anderson Air Force Base on Guam, a key staging area for any U.S. support for Taiwan. The Global Times reported that China’s intermediate ballistic missiles such as the DF-26 could take out American bases while its air defenses shoot down incoming firepower.

This is a worry for U.S. military planners. A University of Sydney study warned last year that America “no longer enjoys military primacy” over China and that U.S. bases, airstrips and ports in the region “could be rendered useless by precision strikes in the opening hours of a conflict.”

“Beijing’s strategy isn’t just based on undermining Taiwan’s resistance, it’s also a gamble on how the U.S. will approach the cross-strait issue,” Daniel Russel, a former top State Department official under President Barack Obama, said in Taipei on Sept. 8. “The strongest driver of increased Chinese assertiveness is the conviction that the Western system, and the U.S. in particular, is in decay.”

In August, China fired four missiles into the South China Sea capable of destroying U.S. bases and aircraft carriers. Since the DF-26 can be armed with both nuclear and conventional warheads, arms-control experts have worried that any signs China was mobilizing to fire one could trigger a preemptive U.S. strike against Chinese nuclear forces — potentially leading to an uncontrollable conflict.

Whether the world will ever get to that moment largely hinges on political leaders in Beijing and Washington.

Some in the U.S., like Trump’s former national security adviser, John Bolton, wanted the administration to do much more to show it would come to Taiwan’s aid. Richard Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations, argued last month that the U.S. should explicitly state it would intervene to deter Xi and reassure allies.

“Above all, Xi is motivated by a desire to maintain the CCP’s dominance of China’s political system,” Haass wrote in Foreign Affairs magazine on Sept. 2 in a piece co-authored with David Sacks. “A failed bid to ‘reunify’ Taiwan with China would put that dominance in peril, and that is a risk Xi is unlikely to take.”

China’s military said in September that it would defeat Taiwan independence “at all cost.” Ma Xiaoguang, a spokesman for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office in Beijing, separately warned that Tsai’s pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party was “totally misjudging” the situation.

Taiwanese officials have also said China’s military threat is rising, even though Defense Minister Yen De-fa told lawmakers on Sept. 29 there’s no sign the PLA is amassing troops for an invasion.

“We simply have to be prepared for the worst,” said Enoch Wu, a former non-commissioned officer in Taiwan’s special forces now with Tsai's ruling party who heads the Taipei-based Forward Alliance, a group that promotes security reforms. “China is no longer ‘biding its time’ and no longer trying to win hearts and minds.”

Ultimately, Xi would need to order any attack. Last year he said “peaceful reunification” would be best even though he wouldn’t “renounce the use of force.” He called Taiwan’s integration with China “a must for the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation in the new era” — a key reason he’s used to justify scrapping presidential term limits in becoming China’s most powerful leader since Mao Zedong.

While an invasion carries enormous risks for the party, Xi has shown he will take strong action on territorial disputes. He’s ignored international condemnation in squashing Hong Kong’s pro-democracy camp, militarizing contested South China Sea land features and setting up reeducation camps for more than a million Muslim Uighurs in Xinjiang.

That record worries analysts like Easton, who wrote the book on China’s invasion threat.

“Taiwan fighting by itself could make Beijing pay a terrible price, at least several hundreds of thousands in casualties,” he said. “But that may be a price Xi Jinping is willing to pay. We underestimate the CCP’s capacity for radical decision making at our peril.”
Reply
#10
美副國務卿籲陸吸取俄教訓 若武力犯台國際社會必回應
https://hk.on.cc/hk/bkn/cnt/intnews/2022...2_001.html

美國副國務卿舍曼周三(6日)表示,中國大陸應由俄烏戰事吸取教訓,若武力侵犯台灣,國際社會必會回應
舍曼出席眾議院外交委員會聽證會,被問到若大陸武力犯台,國際社會較難如俄烏戰事般,集結力量聲援台灣,美方如何回應。

舍曼回應時指出,強調美國的一中政策,不接受大陸企圖以武力奪台,此舉無助於台海或印太區域穩定。她指美國會持續協助台灣維持足夠自衞能力,提供必要武器。美國也會保持能力,抵抗任何會危及台灣的武力或脅迫行動。

舍曼又指出,美國與盟友對俄羅斯實施多項制裁,讓大陸清楚了解,若向俄國提供任何物資支援,將會面臨後果

美財長耶倫:若中國攻台 將面臨與俄同等制裁
https://www.hk01.com/%E5%8D%B3%E6%99%82%...6%E8%A3%81

自俄烏開戰以來,將台灣與烏克蘭作比較的聲音就一直存在,而美國在相關問題上對台灣的表態也就更令外界關注。

據美國彭博社4月6日報道,美財長耶倫(Janet Yellen)6日表示,如果北京對台灣採取激進行動,拜登(Joe Biden)政府將準備對中國使用所有制裁工具

據報道,耶倫6日在眾議院金融服務委員會(House Financial Services Committee)作報告時,北卡羅來納州共和黨眾議員麥克亨利(Patrick McHenry)向其提問稱,假如中國對台灣採取行動,財政部是否會像在俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭後對俄一樣對中國實施制裁?

耶倫回答說:「絕對會。我認為我們已經證明了我們可以。在俄羅斯的問題上,我們威脅要有嚴重後果。我們已經施加了嚴重後果。我認為,你們不應該懷疑我們在其他情況下採取同樣行動的能力和決心。」

彭博社指出,俄羅斯對烏克蘭的攻擊削弱了人們對世界大國能夠防止台灣同樣爆發危機的信心

大陸孤立台灣 美智庫促華府外交抵制
https://hk.on.cc/hk/bkn/cnt/cnnews/20220...2_001.html

美國智庫德國馬歇爾基金會周四(24日)發表報告,敦促美國應組織夥伴國家展開一場外交運動,抵制中國大陸把台灣排除在聯合國機構和其他國際組織外的愈來愈強迫性做法

報告建議美國官員要主動出擊抵制大陸在聯合國高層的普遍影響力,反對陸方官員在聯合國機構擔任高級職位的任命和選舉。基金會指,大陸外交官努力確保台灣不能參加國際機構活動,會迫使聯合國人員保證在文件把台灣寫成「中國的一個省」。

聯合國於1971年通過了承認中華人民共和國是中國在聯合國唯一合法代表決議,報告指北京利用決議及與其他成員國建立正常雙邊關係的協議,錯誤地聲稱「一個中國」原則是受普遍接受的準則,部分做法是通過對政府施加經濟壓力。北京亦會就對台灣的表述向私營企業和非政府組織施壓,例如陸方在新冠疫情爆發初期禁止台灣參加世衞大會。大陸駐美國大使館發言人劉鵬宇說,台灣地區參與國際組織、包括世界衞生組織的活動,必須遵守「一個中國」原則。
Reply


Forum Jump:


Users browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)